Пересказ: Профессор Цзян Сюэцинь о войне в Иране и глобальной экономической катастрофе

professor thank you very much for doing this we've we've never met i don't know a great deal about you but i have seen a number uh of your videos in which you make remarkably accurate predictions um so that's what i know about you and i'm impressed by that by your ability to call events before they happen so with that in mind let me ask you where do you think this war in iran is going how will it be resolved and what are the consequences likely to be well thanks so much for inviting me tucker i'm a huge fan i've been i'm out of your work for a number of years now thank you so i think that this war in iran will be very similar to the war in ukraine meaning that this will be drawn out be a war of attrition uh neither side will concede defeat even though it is in the best interest to reach a ceasefire and this will have dramatic consequences on the global economy um and this war could drag on for years and years already we're seeing major repercussions on the global economy in that flights are being canceled in southeast asia they ran out of and they ran out of fuel so they're asking people to stay at home and um in a few more months experts are predicting a food shortage meaning that nations we force into food rationing and um today there's a major escalation in that the israelis struck the largest gas field in iran and iran retaliated and iran has stated that its purpose its goal its strategy is to move oil to 200 a barrel which will have um a really significant impact on the global economy because the entire global economy is based based on access to cheap energy so unfortunately i think that we can expect this war to drag on for years and years eventually america will send in ground troops uh eventually the state of homoids will be contested um eventually this will spread all across the world eventually other nations be drawn in so saudi arabia is thinking about declaring war on iran and saudi arabia has a neutral defense pact with pakistan so pakistan will be drawn into this into this war so um things are spiraling out of control and um just recently um ali uh larajini who is a de facto head of the iranian war effort was assassinated and um he was a problematic um elder statesman in iran who had the authority to negotiate a ceasefire now that he's gone um there really is no more off-ramp so um both sides are committed to a long war of attrition and uh the consequences for the entire global economy are quite dire that is uh i wouldn't say that's the worst case scenario the worst case scenario would include a nuclear strike by one or more actors and the destruction of the oxa mosque complex in jerusalem which would spark a religious war so that's as bad as it could get but you've just described one step before the worst which is protracted destructive impossible to stop so my question is because there are so many global players big global players the u.s and china i think who would be hurt by this why is there not an incentive to get it settled quickly and why can't that happen right um so once this war starts it um it's it it achieves a momentum and a logic of its own so um the united states doesn't really have an off-ramp meaning that if it um tries to negotiate a ceasefire with iran iran would ask for reparations about one trillion dollars basically um it would ask for the united states to leave the middle east permanently to ensure its long-term survival if the united states were to do that then the gcc the gcc nations would collectively become client states of iran because only iran can guarantee their safety as well as um use of the shared humus the gcc is the basis of the petrodollar so what the gcc does is it sells oil in u.s dollars and then recycles this money back into the american economy so if the gcc were to abandon the petrodollar and this would have severe repercussions on the american economy also there'd be a chain um a chain reaction in that um japan and south korea would look at what's happened in the middle east and decide that the united states can no longer guarantee it's their safety so they would have to remilitarize um and they would have spent all the resources on on adapting to the possible china threat and then you have europe and then europe um would look at what happened in the gcc as well as in southeast asia and they would be like why are we fighting russia wouldn't be in our best interest to negotiate a peace treaty with russia as soon as possible what this would mean the collapse of the uh u.s dollar as a global reserve currency remember that america is sitting on 39 trillion dollars in debt and so the american economy is a punchy scheme that relies on um foreign nations to continually buy u.s dollars so the u.s economy would not be able to withstand essentially uh american withdrawal from the middle east so the americans are stuck where they are right now unfortunately what is the chinese perspective on this i mean it seems like china has an interest in peace in the in the persian gulf with those seven oil producing countries why wouldn't china step in and try and settle this so both the united states and china benefit from the status quo um and china has a vested interest in seeing a very quick solution to uh this war in the middle east china imports about 40 percent of its uh energy needs from the gcc so not just iranian oil but also qatari natural gas right so as you point out china very much wants to see as soon as possible a ceasefire um unfortunately um it is the nature of the chinese government not to interfere in um foreign affairs it's china doesn't really have a geopolitical framework a grand strategy it really believes in global trade and it doesn't really have a framework for how to uh resolve armed conflict and so chinese policymakers are really stuck and in fact chinese chinese policymakers have come out publicly saying that they would like uh the carnage the violence in the middle east to stop as soon as possible and for the straight who moves to open up um but unfortunately um as i pointed out previously when war a war starts it achieves a momentum and a logic of its own and it's very hard to stop a war once it starts so if your prediction is correct and i pray that it's not i'm sure you do too hope that you're wrong but if you're not wrong yes and this continues to grind in the way that it is now destroying energy infrastructure just really destroying the civilizations of the region and iran and the gcc what does that look like in say two years globally what's the effect on the global economy right so um this war it will accelerate three major trends um and nations will have to adapt to a new reality in which energy is longer cheap and accessible uh the first major trend is deindustrialization um meaning that right now you just have too many people living in in cities and you can do that as long as you can import cheap energy and cheap food but when cheap energy and cheap food are gone then you need people to work the fields to grow food for your economy so you have to deindustrialize uh and reduce your energy dependence okay that's one major trend that we should see very soon second major trend we should see is remilitarization in that um before we had tax americana where america basically guaranteed global peace um and america basically prevented nations from going to war against each other so for example um trump brokered a ceasefire between india and pakistan uh because these two nations have much hostilities against uh each other but now that america doesn't longer has the aura of invisibility and inability now that the american military does that does that come across as almighty then uh america doesn't have the power to stop kids from attacking each other on the playground anymore so nations have to remilitarize um especially nations like japan which before relied too heavily on american military protection okay so that's number two the remilitarization of the world and the third major trend we should see is mercantilism meaning that now that global trade is disrupted nations especially advanced industrial nations such as japan and germany they need to create their own independent self-sufficient supply chains fortunately america doesn't have this issue because the western hemisphere is extremely wealthy uh and abundant in natural resources um but if you are japan and germany then you have to reach out and expand your borders if you are to maintain your industrial might so these are the three major trends we should be seeing very quickly well here's something that thieves count on security cameras usually stop where wi-fi stops right makes sense so if you've got a barn a job site equipment parked outside long driveway criminals know there's a good chance that nobody is watching this because there's no wi-fi and that's why we like defend by tactic cam it's a new sponsor of this show defense cameras don't run on wi-fi they run on cellular just like your 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power a great power like china just kind of intuitively demands hegemony in its own region like china controls the east i would imagine that's the chinese perspective but in the way of that are japan the historic enemy and south korea but particularly japan and i know that people in your country are very focused on japan so is it plausible that china allows japan to become say a nuclear armed power at this point right so um from the surface it seems as though japan has a lot of structural weaknesses okay so for example it has an aging population it has the oldest population in the world that's a huge constraint on the future growth potential of japan another problem for japan is that it is resource dependent it relies on imports for its resources um and taiwan blocks off the street of malacca right because japan requires um requires most of its energy from the gcc for the shirt of malacca and taiwan will be a barrier so if taiwan were to reunify with china then basically japan can be blockaded and um they could be starved um and the other major issue with japan is its economy where for the past 30 years it's in a deflationary spiral because of its um excessive debt debt burden so there are fundamental weaknesses to japan but um i'm a historian and i study historical patterns and what i've seen is that the japanese people are incredibly resilient you go back to the 13th century and the mongols emitted not once but twice and at this time japan was very much a feudal nation divided into different fiefdoms and they came together as a people to defeat the greatest empire in in the world at that time not once but twice and you go to the middle of the 19th century when china was being carved up by these western industrial powers and it seemed as though japan was what they carved up as well but the japanese engaged in something called the meiji restoration and in 20 to 30 years time they went from a feudal backward nation into an industrial power that ultimately defeated russia in the russian japanese war of 1905 right and then you go to world war ii when america devastated japan uh not just nuclear strikes but also the fire bombings yes so at the end of world war ii japan was completely devastated but in like 20 years time in a generation they became the world's greatest manufacturing power so i would not kind of count the japanese out there's something about their culture that is extremely resilient um extremely entrepreneurial and i think that given crises they will come together as a people and adapt to these challenges um and so um i if i were to bet if you if you give me like a billion dollars and said in east asia you can invest your money either in china or japan or you could you could invest half and half well tucker i'll be honest with you um i would invest all my money in japan that's a fact what a fascinating analysis i i i agree with you i just i mean intuitively i agree with you but i i just wonder if china can tolerate that given the history between the two countries and the focus and just the growth of china can they really allow right in the middle of of east asia a competing power right so the major issue with china is that it sells itself the middle kingdom um you know the middle kingdom yes which is to say that the chinese believe that they are a universe onto themselves what happens outside china doesn't really impact china so what's important is to maintain the national sovereignty of china because it is a self-sufficient nation that has no interest in the outside world japan is complete opposite in that it is an island and it requires to uh it basically needs to extract resources from other nations in order to survive as a nation so these are two very different mentalities where um china is very much an agricultural self-sufficient nation that is insular and conservative and japan is an outward-looking um seafaring nation interesting so you it sounds like they they can co-exist or you well you just said it you're not betting against japan what about south korea which has the one of the lowest if not the lowest birth rate in the world in contrast to north korea um and has basically modeled itself uh on the united states i mean down to the to the most basic level the u.s pulling back from east asia is i mean that's going to be a transformative thing i would think for south korea what happens yeah south korea is a very precarious position um primarily because of north korea um so once the united states is forced to withdraw from southeast asia then north korea can take the initiative and the problem with this conflict is that seoul the largest city in south korea it's only 30 minutes away from north korean artillery so in like a whole day um north korea could flatten seoul and so south korea is in a very precarious position also if you look the economy of seoul of south korea it's a very ossified very corrupt um system where just a few companies um control the entire economy and this is what's led to intense competition in south korea which has led to the extremely low birth rate in uh south korea so um south korea is in a very precarious uh position but what i will say about the south koreans is that they are fanatical workers they work really really hard and they have a long memory of colonial persecution um from both the chinese and the japanese and these are fiercely independent people so i wouldn't be surprised if north korea and south korea were to come were to come to compromise at some point because both nations aspire for national unification and because china japan will be in conflict with each other then the korean people could actually uh navigate this conflict to the benefit that's very smart i i i sense you're absolutely right about that let me just ask you about an observation you made parenthetically a second ago which is because south korea's economy is ossified and centralized it's a monopoly economy its birth rate is low what's the connection between economic monopolies and low birth rate yeah great question so when you have a monopoly what you do is you create a hierarchy right because everyone's trying to get into these companies because these companies are the most prestigious in south korea and south korea is very much a confusion culture where face is everything so um the problem though is how do you get into these companies it's a very prestigious position where everyone's trying to get in right and so you usually get in through the um college entrance examination um which allows you to get into prestigious university right so um if you are a south korean couple your strategy is either not to have children because you cannot afford to play this game because you need to send your kid to cram schools get the best tutors basically force all your resources on ensuring the child does well on the college examination so that he or she can get into some sign um or you can choose that to have so you can choose not have any children because it's too expensive for you but if you choose to have a children you can only choose to have one kid because it's much more strategic for you to put all your resources into one kid and spread it over three or four kids um so so that's why um economic monopoly would naturally lead to a low birth rate so what you're saying is intense competition for resources scarce resources produces an incentive that results in low birth rate exactly because everyone sees themselves as competitors against each other and you lose the sense of community right because you have a lot of children um because you want to contribute to the community and grow as a nation but when you see your neighbor as your enemy then um that reduces your incentive to have children interesting so what will be the economic effects on china and and also on the on the rest of asia and southeast asia you know philippines vietnam um if this energy crunch continues in the middle east the reality is that this war in the middle east is having a severe impact already on uh the entire southeast asian economy so uh india imports about 60 percent of its oil from the gcc pakistan also imports a majority of its oil japan inputs about 75 percent of its oil from uh the gcc china imports about 40 percent okay so all these counties are being impacted and already thailand vietnam are running out of fuel um and you go to a gas station there's just more fuel for for your for your motorbike and now people are being forced to work from from home there's there's fuel rationing um there's no jet fuel so this is impacting all of southeast asia so the question isn't like who will be impacted because everyone's impacted the question is who will be most resilient and the most willing to innovate and adapt to this new reality because we're not talking about short-term war we're talking about long-term change the global economy and i think that china will actually be the least resilient and the least ready to adapt to this new reality because for the past 30 40 years um china has got has gotten very wealthy um because of the global economy where it imports cheap energy and exports the global economy and exports manufactured goods and the entire chinese economy is currently based on this model now for the past 20 years china has been moving towards a consumer-based economy and more of an innovation-based economy ai but unfortunately ai itself is dependent on cheap energy and chinese consumers are refusing to spend money for a variety of reasons primarily because they're not they are not that optimistic about china's um um growth for the in the future so uh chinese household savings is about four percent and unless the government is able to get tries to spend more money then it'll be very hard for the chinese economy to move towards a consumer-based economy so um all of southeast asia will be impacted and i think china will be impacted uh the most in the long term maybe not in the short term because china still has access to iranian oil i mean scott doesn't announce today that they will lift sanctions on iranian oil in order to make sure the global economy is not too impacted by this war but in the long term um the chinese economy it is now much too um focus on export um and manufacturing in order to shift to a much more diversified economy right people seem to be more inflamed not just emotionally but physically and more tired than ever and food is part of the reason bad food oh tastes good but not good for you for most of human history people ate actual food stuff that your body recognizes but now you eat a ton of chemicals paleo valley is the solution to this paleo valley's bone broth protein is made from let's see a hundred percent grass-fed and finished beef bones that's it no fillers no additives no weird industrial byproducts it's actual food turned into something you can consume every day most people use it the way we do you blend it into a smoothie or coffee the chocolate flavor is top tier it actually tastes awesome they also have vanilla and salted caramel plus they make a savory original turmeric ginger and an unflavored version you stir into soup rice or even just mix with hot water and drink like bone broth you could do any of those things or all of them americans use paleo valley to support joints digestion recovery paleo valley verifies sourcing and tests for pesticide and that does matter you don't want to drink pesticide that you probably do inadvertently if you want to add something genuinely useful to your diet visit paleo valley.com and use the code tucker for checkout 20 off your first order if you do that that's paleo valley.com code tucker for 20 off so it's it's not just the west that is locked into the current arrangement where we consume the east produces it's the east they're they're locked into producing so this is a massive reorientation for everybody i think is what you're saying yeah yeah and i i would say look the east is going much more impacted than the west because at the end of the day the western hemisphere america they i mean the wealth in the western hemisphere is just tremendous i mean the western hemisphere is self-sufficient but that's not true for southeast asia southeast asia is very dependent on uh energy from overseas how does this affect africa right um so with this war in uh ukraine and with this war in the gcc um experts um experts are saying that in the worst case scenario you could have famine in africa because so much of um uh food and energy um sustains the african um economy and and so um yeah um okay just moving west now um what about the gcc what does that look like in five years right so unfortunately the um biggest loser of this war regardless of how it turns out okay even if americans were to win the biggest loser is the gcc because for the past 30 40 years um the gcc is basically built on a mirage because it's essentially a desert with very little access to um fresh water and very little agriculture and so it couldn't really sustain a large population but with the petrodollar and with american military protection then um the gcc nations felt free to invest in technology that allowed them to grow the population right so these desalination plants um modern infrastructure so you sort of saw this massive growth in dubai in qatar um in riad um and what this war has done is shattered this mirage and revealed uh the limitations of the gcc so for example look at dubai so dubai for many years years as pride itself as this safe um very cosmopolitan very open tax haven so a lot of wealthy people immigrated to uh dubai but um because of this war and when we're talking about like a few drones hitting hotels um it's really shattered the image of dubai uh and once you shadow this mirage you can never ever um um rebuild it again so the idea of dubai as as like the future new york or london the financial capital of the gcc it's this mirage has evaporated iran in five years so iran is being devastated right now um so the israelis and americans are attacking um critical infrastructure so the israelis uh attack the largest gas field in um iran the desalination plant uh was uh destroyed but we also have to remember what is being hidden from us and what's being hidden from us is the fact that the israelis and americans are trying to destroy the capacity of the state to govern the nation basically destroy the state's monopoly on violence and so what we're hearing are attacks on police officers on military installations and there's talk of special forces going into iran and starting to fund dissonant groups right like the kurds and the kolakis in southeast um iran so no matter what happens um in this war it's really very hard for the government to maintain national control um even if they were to survive this war and also another huge issue for iran is that for the past few years it suffered drought issues um so as agriculture was heavily impacted they were actually talking about moving um terrain uh um like moving these millions of people out of the city of terrain because the capital can no longer sustain this large population. So this war will only exaggerate these environmental issues, especially with the attacks on critical civil infrastructure, for example, dams, reservoirs, desailation plants. And it's going to take years and years for Iran to recover from this war as a nation. You have basically the storing of ethnic sentiments. You have the destruction of a state's capacity to deliver basic services. But the good news for Iran is that it seems as though they will be able to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that is critical because now they're able to charge a toll on anyone who uses the Strait of Hormuz. And they talk about 10%, which should generate about $800 billion a year annually for Iran. So the nation will be destroyed in this war. But if it's able to harness the pride of the Persian people, if it's able to unify the Persian people, and it's able to leverage the resources of the Strait of Hormuz effectively, then we can expect Iran to rise again in 10 to 20 years' time.

Where is Israel in a few years from now? So if you look at the main beneficiary of this war, it is Israel. Because Israel has an ambition called the Greater Israel Project, which is what they believe that their God, Yahweh, promised to their ancestor, Abraham. And so they believe that Yahweh promised Abraham all the land from the Nile in Egypt to Euphrates in Iraq. If you look at the entire map, it also extends to Anatolia, which is southern Turkey, and even into Saudi Arabia. So if you look at what's happening, well, it's convenient in that the GCC is being destroyed. Saudi Arabia will probably be drawn into this war. It is possible Turkey will be drawn into this war as well. And this war allows Israel to remake the Middle East in its own image. Also, if you think about it, according to game theory, the main constraint to Israel achieving the Greater Israel Project is actually not Iran, but America. Because America guarantees the military safety and protection of the GCC, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Buran, UAE, these nations. And so if Israel has become dominant, it's become the hegemon of the Middle East, it needs to figure out how to remove America from the equation. And quite honestly, this war has shown the limitations of American power. It's really annoyed the American people. The American people do not want this war. And American people don't even understand why America is in the Middle East. And so it's very possible that regardless of what happens in this war, America is forced to withdraw from the Middle East, in which case Israel is able to achieve its Greater Israel Project. Standard security cameras cannot prevent break-ins. They can help catch burglars after they've done it, but that's a little late, no? They can steal your stuff, scare your family, maybe hurt you.

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America achieved air supremacy very quickly. And they rolled into Baghdad very quickly and toppled the regime. So that was a very quick and easy war that fit the American military of shock and awe. Iran is completely different. And the American military does not want to fight this war because they've wargamed this countless times. And each war game, they discover that they lose because the American military, it's too bulky. It's not as nimble and resilient as the Iranian military. And we're seeing that play out right now where you have these devastating carriers, they're afraid of getting too close to the coast of Iran because then they become susceptible to drone strikes as well as hypersonics. So the Iranians have been preparing this for 20 plus years. They know the entire American playbook. And they have the perfect strategy to counter the American playbook. So America will have a really tough time winning this war. The great problem, the big question now is, will America send in ground troops? Because once America sends in ground troops, then it becomes part committed. It's mission creep, some cause fallacy. It'll be like Vietnam over. So right now there's talk of 2,500 Marines who've coming in from Okinawa. They'll be in the Middle East in about seven days time. And the talk is, the rumor is, and I don't know, but the rumor is, the intention is for them to take Karg Island, which is the main oil depot for Iran. So Iran exports 9% of its oil from that facility, the island. And if the Marines were to take it, it would be great optics. You know, Trump would look good on TV. It would be a great boost for American morale. The problem is that you can take it, but you can't hold it because it's too close to the Iranian coast. And the Iranians can attack with artillery, with drones, okay? Which means that you now have to take on the coast. You have to occupy the coast and create a forward operating base. But then you're exposed to the Zaragoas Mountains, right? Which means that you're now forced to occupy the mountains as well. So it's mission creep. It's exactly like Vietnam, where in 1965, 3,000 Marines went into Dangan to occupy an air base. And like four or five years later, you have half a million troops, right? So it started off as a very limited, self-defined mission. But then it just balloons. So America could find itself in this situation very quickly. If you were the commander-in-chief of the United States, what would you do at this point as of today?

Commander-in-chief meaning Donald Trump? Yeah. You get to make the decision. What does America do next? If it's acting in its own interest, if it's trying to preserve its power and wealth at this point, what does it do? Well, first of all, I would acknowledge that all these events are interconnected, right? So this trade war of China, this war in Ukraine, this war in the Middle East, it's all interconnected because the American empire, it's too overstretched. So what I would do is basically sit down with everyone, including Russia, China, Iran, and say, it's time for a new world order where we are partners in this relationship. Before America was a hegemon, before the U.S. dollar was a world reserve currency. But now what we want to do is open a dialogue where everyone is respected, where America is no longer the bully, but a willing partner in creating a new economic order that benefits everyone and not just a few. I think that's the wisest possible advice and probably the only path that preserves civilization. But the one country standing in the way of that is Israel, which is the only beneficiary of this war, as you just said. I think that's true. Can you think of another beneficiary other than Israel of this war? Well, Russia benefits, right? Because Russia is trying to win this war in Ukraine. That's correct. And America is forced to lift oil sanctions. And so now Russia is now able to take all these war profits, right? And then help the Iranians, finance the Iranians in the struggle against the Americans and the Israelis. So the Russians also benefit tremendously from this war. Yeah, but fair point. Israel has to be constrained by the United States in order to do what you just recommended it do. Is that possible? Does the American president have the authority to control its client state? So if you look at the domestic situation in Israel, Israel no longer behaves rationally. It is sort of overtaken by eschatological fever, right? So if you look at videos coming out of Israel, there are rabbis going around saying that this war in the Middle East, even though it's destroying Tel Aviv, it's good for us because this will lead to the coming of our Messiah. So they believe that it is when Israel is under the most strain, when the very existence of Israel is threatened, then God will intervene because the Jewish people will come together as a nation again and commit themselves, renew their faith in God. And once God sees the blind, trusting, absolute faith of the Jewish people, then he will save his people by sending his Messiah, who will then redeem the Jewish people. So another thing this is secular temporal matters don't really matter. This war in the Middle East, not an issue. What matters is divinity. What matters is our relationship with God.

Yes. So what matters is faith. If nuclear bombs go flying, it doesn't really matter. What's so interesting is that, you know, 25 years ago at 9-11, whatever you think of how that happened and why, there was, I saw it personally, you know, a political Islam. There were Wahhabists. There were a lot of Islamic radicals around the world. And for a bunch of reasons over 25 years, that hasn't disappeared. There still exist Islamic radicals, but it's not, you know, an important political force anymore. At the same time, as Islam in general has become much more moderate, and the GCC is the most obvious example of this, there has been a rise of Jewish Wahhabism and evangelical Christian Wahhabism, so to speak. I mean, you've seen this eschatological extremism among some American Protestants, Christians, and some Israeli and American Jews. How did that happen? What is that? Right. So, first of all, I don't think we can ever overestimate the influence of eschatology in American politics. So, I'll give you an example where about a quarter of Americans are evangelicals, and a lot of them are Christian Zionists. So, they believe that Israel is crucial, the linchpin to achieving God's plan and the return of Jesus. And so, a very prominent figure that you probably know very well is John Hadji, who runs something called the Christians United for Israel. It's 7 million members, and these are the people who are financing a lot of the conflict in the Middle East, in Israel, because they're the ones who are funding West Bank settlements. And so, Christian Zionism, it is an extremely powerful political force in America.

So, your question is, how did this happen? And the issue is that this is a plan that has been in motion for centuries. And it's a very complicated history, but it involves different religious groups among the Jews. Septim Frankus, Shabbat Lubavitch, which you've talked about. But it also involves the Freemasons, the Knights Templars, the Rosicrucians. It involves the Jesuits. So, you have these different secret societies, different religious organizations, working together for the centuries to achieve this plan for the end of the world, which heralds the Messianic Age. And there are different components of this plan, but the basic components are, one is the creation of the nation state of Israel, which happened in 1948. And then you need to have the building of the third temple, which requires the destruction of the Ayaxic mosque, which is actually, which could happen during this war, given what we've seen so far. So, the Israelis have closed off the Ayaxic mosque, as well as other religious sites, like the Church of Holy Sepulchre to tourists these past few days. There's rumors that for the past two years, the Israelis have been conducting these archaeological digs under the Ayaxic mosque to basically destroy the foundations of the mosque so that they can conduct a controlled demolition of the mosque and blame it on a missile strike from the Iranians. And there's actually talk among the Israelis of using this plan to ignite a war between the Arabs and the Persians. So, the Ayaxic mosque needs to be destroyed for the third temple. They also talk about this war of Gog and Magog between Israel and the entire world. Then the coming of the Jewish Messiah, the creation of the Greater Israel Project, the return of all Jews from the diaspora. So, there are different components to this plan. If you just observe geopolitical events, we're seeing these events converge together today. I mean, all these events are playing out. So, it seems as though there are these very powerful shadow forces working behind the scenes. We don't know who they are, but it seems as though they're able to control geopolitics in a certain manner as to fulfill their eschatological script. What role do you think Donald Trump plays in this? That's a really hard question to answer. So, let's look at different possibilities. The first possibility is that he's been employed as an actor and he's just filling a script and doesn't really know where this movie is going. He's just doing his part. But he's manipulated behind the scenes by people around him. And, you know, when reporters asked him, like, why is this war on Iran happening? He did say that his advisors, which includes Sivakov, Jared Kushner, Peter Hexsev, Marco Rubio, told him that the Iranians were so close to getting a nuclear weapon and that the Iranians were attacked first. And so, I was basically misled. And I think that's probably true in that Trump surrounds himself with certain people that have a certain political eschatological agenda. So, that's one possibility, that he's just an actor.

Another possibility is that he himself has a mesonite calling. And what I mean by that is, if you go back to January 2021, he was politically dead, right? Because the January 6th riots happened. He was impeached twice. And then after he left office, there was lawfare conducted against him. And he went bankrupt. So, the entire world went against him. But now he's president of the United States. And so, how would he personally understand this? I think a lot of it is God has asked him to serve. There's a call to serve. And he has to fulfill a mission. What this mission is, okay? What this mission is, whether it's to save Israel, whether it's to save America, whether it's part of a grander scheme, only he in his heart knows. And I think no one except him knows, okay? So, I think that's another possibility. And the third possibility is that this is all Israel is doing. Netanyahu is the one who's forced him into this sort of situation because the Israelis attacked first. Marco Rubio said this, where, you know what? We wanted these negotiations, but the Israelis were planning to attack. If they attacked, the Iranians would be compelled to attack both the Americans and the Israelis. And we did not want to put our soldiers in harm's way, so we attacked with the Israelis. Okay? So, it's possible this is all Netanyahu and all its machining nations. And another fourth possibility is they have co-opted him. Like, there's blackmail on him. There's—and he has actually no choice but to do what he says because he's compromised in a certain way. And maybe his family is under threat. So, all four are possibilities. And quite honestly, I have no idea which possibility is the most correct. Yeah, I don't think anybody does. And I've really tried to keep, you know, speculation to a minimum. You always want to believe that people's motives are transparent, that they state why they're doing what they're doing. But, of course, you can never know what's inside a man, right? Even in yourself, it's hard to know your own motives very often. So, I think that's a wise take. What happens to North America, United States—and I do want to include Mexico and Canada. We don't think a lot about those countries, but they're both massive land masses, and they have big populations, and they're our neighbors. And so, if the world is reorienting, I think you need to think in terms of continents rather than just nation states. What does that look like in three or four years? Right. So, from a geopolitical perspective, if America is forced to retreat back into the Western Hemisphere, it needs to worry about resources. And so, it is in the best interest of America to eventually take over and colonize both Canada and Mexico.

Yes. Mexico for its labor supply, Canada for its resources. You know, Canada is probably the worst country in the world. I know. And so, from a geopolitical perspective, if the world is retreating into self-sufficiency, if there's mercantilism, if there's trade barriers, then America has absolutely no choice but to ensure its own supply networks. And that means eventually taking over Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Cuba, Venezuela. So, America doesn't really have much choice in this matter. At the same time, what we're seeing is that this war, as well as other events, are causing political fissures in America, especially between left and right. So, witness what happened in Minneapolis in January, right? And so, we can expect that as this war continues, and there's a strong possibility that Donald Trump will call up a national draft in order to ensure the manpower to fight this war. And so, unfortunately, America is probably going to suffer a long, many years of sectarian violence.

Not a full-fledged civil war, but maybe something along the lines of the troubles in Ireland. I'm not sure if you've seen this terrible movie called One Battle After Another. It's just a terrible movie, by the way. But, you know, it gives you insight into what a civil war might look like when you have these insertion groups fighting against the state. So, yeah. But you expect the United States to hang together as a coherent nation-state. Listen, Tucker, the United States is the greatest nation in the world. The people are open, generous, entrepreneurial, energetic. The resources of America are infinite. America is a kind of a fortress so that it's protected by two oceans. America doesn't have a peer competitor in North America and South America. And so, I mean, America, regardless of what happens, America will still come out doing pretty well just because of the peer energy and creativity of its people. So, you mentioned Canada. Most Americans don't even know the capital of Canada. Canada does not appear on there. Radar doesn't figure in their thoughts. But you described it as probably, quote, probably the richest country in the world. I think that's objectively true. And yet Canada is not a rich country. In fact, it's getting poorer. Its life expectancy is declining. Its GDP is declining. And that's on purpose. The nation of Canada has been suppressed on purpose. Its population is being killed off by the state through its assisted suicide program. And its population is changing through mass immigration against the will of the population. So, that country is being held down on purpose. And my question is, by whom and why? Sure. That's a great question. And this is something that I struggle with all the time because I am a Canadian citizen. I went to school there. So, my answer is that Canada was never really a nation state. It's more of a glorified resource colony for the British, the city of London. And the reality is, now that the British are under a lot of strain, the city of London is under a lot of financial pressure. It sees places like Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. And what do you do if you have financial issues? When you do corporate restructuring, you change the middle management, right? And historically, you know, the British got along very well with the Indian elite, right? They went into India and stole tons of dollars from the Indians. And the elite, the Indian elite were perfectly happy to help them, right? So, why not use the same model for Australia, for Canada? So, you know, there are millions of Indians who immigrated to Canada in the past five years. And it's put a lot of strain on the Canadian economy because housing prices are, you know, have exploded. And so ordinary Canadians can no longer afford to buy a house. And it's put so much pressure on the Canadian welfare system, on the Canadian economy. And you would think that the proper strategy would have a moratorium where they're like, you know what? We've had too many immigrants and we need to close the borders and absorb these immigrants because we want to ensure that these immigrants have proper housing. They have decent jobs, right? You would think that that'd be the right strategy. Yes. And instead, Mark Carney goes to India and says, we want more Indians. And also, we'll give you scholarships to come to Canada to study for free. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Canadians who are homeless, who are unemployed, and who cannot put food on the table. But hey, we want more Indians. So, if it's not corporate restructuring, if it's not trying to asset strip Canada, I really don't understand the strategy for this.

Well, I mean, it's a kind of genocide, right? Against Canadians, people whose ancestors built the country. But you wonder what the purpose is. Like, this is clear because it is happening all over the West, all over the English-speaking world, in the white countries. And it's not an accident. It's not organic. So, it's a big picture, you know, that spans from Australia to Ottawa. And what are we, what is that? Do you know? Right. So, let's look at Europe. Because in 2014, this was a major turning point in Europe. Because you had these tens of millions of refugees trying to escape these wars in the Middle East, you know, created by America's wars in the Middle East. And they were trying to reach Europe. And at this point, Europe had a choice. It could choose to close its borders and maintain its cultural identity or it could open the floodgates. And Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, she said something really, really famous and that stuck in my mind, which is, we can do this. We are Europeans. Somehow, we can take in these millions of refugees and welcome them into our societies and thrive as a people. And the complete opposite has happened. You've got millions of these refugees who fled into Europe, not because of their choice, by the way, but because their nations were devastated, right? Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq were all devastated in these wars against terror in the Middle East. So, they go and these are proud Islamists. They love their religion. They love their family. They love the community. And so, they're not going to absorb themselves and assimilate themselves into Europe. And today, you know, you're looking at population replacement in a lot of cities. You go to certain places in Britain and you might think you're in Cairo or Baghdad. And this has caused tremendous conflict throughout Europe. I wouldn't be surprised if, like, two to four years' time, you have civil war break out, insurgencies break out in places like Britain and France. So, the question is, why is this happening throughout the world at the same time? Exactly. Why is it that these different nations, whether they're European, whether they're Canadian or Australian, why are they adopting the same policies? Not just in terms of COVID, right, but also in terms of, like, immigration. And so, that's one of the great questions that we have to ask about the world we live in today. It seems as though it's almost a controlled demolition of Western civilization, right? The Anglosphere, Western Europe. It seems as though these nations are being destroyed purposely. For what end? I don't know. But I would just say there's a certain pattern that has emerged and the result can only end up in the controlled demolition of these societies. I don't think, I don't even think that's up for debate. I mean, of course, just look at the bottom line numbers. You know, of course, the white populations are being killed on purpose. And the question is, why? And I don't have the faintest idea. And I know there's a lot of speculation as to who's doing it. I'll just say bluntly, I don't know. I mean, I know who the instruments are, of course.

But Keir Starmer is not in charge of Great Britain. Macron isn't in charge of France. I'm not sure how many leaders really do have control of their countries. I don't know how many countries actually have sovereignty. I really don't know the answer. But something is going on. Is there any precedent for this in history? Have you ever seen anything like this as a historian? Right. So you look at what's happening in Ukraine, where the war is lost. It was lost two years ago. The Ukrainians have lost over a million fighting men. A lot of their people have fled overseas. No matter what happens in this war, Ukraine is finished as a nation state. It is no longer viable as a nation state. And rather than amid defeat and come to a ceasefire with Putin, what the Europeans are doing is just saying that we're going to draft our men and have them fight in the trenches of Ukraine. Which would be suicide because the Russians dominate the battlefield with their drones and artillery and trenches in Ukraine. So it's almost like a suicide mission. But not only that, but the Germans have said that, okay, we can only draft German men, but not Islamic men, because we're afraid of their loyalty. Which means that you have a situation where local men, like British, French, German men, are being sent to die in the trenches of Ukraine. And, you know, back at home, you have these immigrant populations that have not assimilated into your culture. So it's a really weird strategy. And I don't know who comes up with this sort of stuff. And look, there's no historical precedent for this. There just isn't. I mean, there's been incidents of mass immigration. You go back to the fall of the Roman Empire and how these, you know, hordes of immigrants flooded the Romans. And it's almost impossible to assimilate so many people. Eventually, there's going to be a cultural takeover.

Eventually, with so many people who are insistent on maintaining their cultural identity. Eventually, because they have more children than you, eventually they're going to overwhelm your cultural identity. Yeah, and I do think that is the story of history. One population replacing another. There's no such thing as multiculturalism. There's always a dominant culture that, you know, insists on dominance, of course. I just don't think there's ever been anyone who thought this could happen globally. Like a systematic targeting of a race for elimination globally. I mean, well, it wasn't possible until pretty recently. But it would be interesting to know what the plan is. There's clearly, like, a plan behind that. There's a plan behind everything. How many Americans do you think understand what's actually happening in the world right now? You know, unfortunately, I think that if you are educated in America, you know, I went to Yale. Yale, and so I know a lot of these Ivy League people. Yes. Unfortunately, we've been indoctrinated to believe certain values. And these values are not questionable. So, for example, there was a court case that went to the Supreme Court about affirmative action at the University of Michigan. And affirmative action is clearly against American values, against the idea of American meritocracy, right? But the Supreme Court said that affirmative action was good because diversity is an inherent good, okay? And it's interesting because if you go to a place like Yale or Harvard or any of these Ivy League schools, there's actually very little diversity. I'm talking about intellectual diversity. Yes.

Yeah, I mean, like, there's different skin color. But if you actually look at the ideas that they engage with in a classroom, it's a very conformist setting. So, it's one of these great ironies where affirmative action is supposed to bring diversity to the classroom. But if you go to any classroom in an elite setting, it's extremely conformist. You're not allowed to bring up these issues about, you know, population replacement, immigration, because then you'd be called a racist. And that's the worst thing to be called, right? I mean, like, you're better off being called a pedophile, right? Pedophiles have more rights now than racists. So, unfortunately, it's not just what's happening in current events. It's also what's happening in the classroom and in the popular culture where people are not even allowed to ask questions that are, like, blindly obvious if you just walk the streets of any, you know, Western city. You've lived around the world. I think you're now in China. Does the rest of the world see this more clearly? Yeah, I mean, if you're not in the West, and if you're not, if you're not subjected to this brainwashing, indoctrination that they feed you in the schools, it's, I mean, it's obvious. Again, it's bloody obvious to anyone if you just walk the streets of any major city in the West. So, there's a joke in China, and so popular, so Chinese don't actually like to go to Canada for tourism. And someone asked, why doesn't anyone recommend Chinese going to Canada? And the response was, well, would you recommend someone going to India, right? So, it's a bit racist. It's very racist, okay? But, I mean, you know, it's obvious to people. It's just interesting because, like, I'm not defending the whites. I am white, of course, but, you know, white people have done a lot of bad things, just like people do a lot of bad things. But, in general, people like to go on, as you just noted, vacation in white countries because they're pretty nice. So, I think you'd have to say, if you took the emotion out of it and just, like, looked at it, net, net, whites have been, you know, pretty big addition to the world. Invented a lot of stuff, created a lot of beauty, created places people like to go on vacation, which really is a good test. So, like, why would you destroy all that? Look, so, in my school, I teach a great books. I teach Western civilization. I teach Homer, the Iliad, the Odyssey. I teach Plato, the Republic. I teach Dante, the Divine Comedy. I teach the Bible. And my students love it because Western civilization, it's just not about people being white. It's really about what it means to be human. Right. And what it means to be spiritual and to have connections with the divine. So, it's unfortunate that just when the world needs Western civilization the most, the West decides to destroy its own civilization. I mean, Homer, Dante, Plato, Shakespeare, the Bible, these are timeless classics that speak to every human. And I know because I teach in China to Chinese students who have absolutely no exposure to Western culture, yet they fall in love with Plato, Dante, Homer, and Shakespeare. And why is that? And it's because there is eternal truth embedded in their words.

And so, Western universities ought to be the places, the fortresses, that are the greatest defenders of Western civilization. But if you go again to these elite universities, Yale, Harvard, they are the most critical of Western civilization. They don't want to teach Homer and Dante and Plato. And it's like, if you don't teach these classics, what's the purpose of university? I always thought the university was the heart and center of civilization, right? It's like what monasteries were in the medieval age. And I thought these professors, they would dedicate their lives to promoting the classics. But instead, they now promote complete nonsense like DEI and, yeah. Of all the, and this is my last question. Professor, thank you. It's been a wonderful conversation and I hope it won't be our last. And I hope we can have dinner when we're on the same continent. But this is my last question, since you've traveled so much and lived so many places and speak multiple languages, where would you say the part of the world that's most hostile to Western civilization, as you just described it, is?

Trying to understand where this hostility is coming from. Well, I would say Canada, Britain, Western Europe. I would say these places are the most hostile towards Western civilization. Chinese people have tremendous respect for Western civilization. In fact, China's in the process of promoting the classics, Plato, Homer, Shakespeare, in China, because Chinese recognize the tremendous cultural value and immense eternal truths embedded in these classics. So we're in a very weird situation where the West is destroying itself by abandoning what makes it great, which is, you know, these classics. I think if we talk longer, I'm going to start to cry on camera. So I'm going to I'm going to take an emotional break here. Professor, thank you. OK, no, what I do not mean. No, no, no, I'm half kidding. No, it's it's emotionally resonant for me because I know that you're telling the truth and it comports with everything that I've seen. And so it's hard to accept something that's true. But I think what you're saying is true, unfortunately. So bless you for this. And I hope to see you again soon. Thank you. Yeah, I really enjoyed it, Tucker. Thank you. you you you you you you