Что разрушил Иран и будущее сделки
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/what-iran-smashed-and-future-of-the
Краткое содержание
Краткий аналитический пост. ОАЭ отказали в использовании своего воздушного пространства против Ирана, Саудовская Аравия прекратила логистическую поддержку наступательных операций. США оказались чрезмерно зависимы от двух баз — в Бахрейне и Иордании, — что делает крупную военную кампанию невозможной.
Значимость
Автор констатирует, что именно по этим причинам Иран методично концентрировал удары на указанных объектах. По его оценке, Трамп, возможно, готов подписать меморандум о взаимопонимании лишь для видимости — не принимая условия Ирана всерьёз. США лишились большинства передовых баз в регионе; часть союзников из стран Персидского залива пытается в обход Вашингтона договориться с Ираном напрямую. Автор предупреждает, что Трамп может пойти на очередной удар, несмотря на ухудшившееся стратегическое положение — просто «из глупости».
🧾 Транскрипт (формат)
What Iran smashed and future of the deal
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/what-iran-smashed-and-future-of-the
So we know why Iran hasn't been striking the UAE And we know why the US air base in Saudi Arabia has also been left alone Verified
The UAE refuses to allow its airspace to be against Iran and the Saudis refuse to provide any further logistical support for an offensive against Iran.
The Americans have become over-dependent on their bases in Bahrain and Jordan. The bulk of US land-based air power being concentrated at just two bases is far too dangerous for the US to sustain in a renewed war. Trump is trapped under these circumstances and he cannot renew a general war.
Which explains the heavy Iranian focus on striking these bases to add to that pressure in recent weeks. It's clear that Trump is at least willing to pretend to accept Iranian terms just to get an MoU signed, if not he's actually genuinely agreed to them at this point. Definitely seems we are the closest to seeing an MoU signed. But does that really even matter when both the US and Israel renege of evry ceasefire theyve ever made? Trump will just renege. Cant look at this in terms of US interest. He obeys Israel and his donors. The US has been reduced to a single major air base in the Middle East region. The rest are destroyed. And he has his carriers. His position is untenable. And now some of his Gulf allies are trying to save themselves by cutting side deals with Iran. He doesn't have the bases, munitions or geographical space needed to launch the kind of air offensive against Iran he did earlier on. The problem is he is dumb and may do it anyway.
Sulaiman Ahmed 2d IRAN END NEGOTIATIONS? Ryan Dawson
Watch here:
25 1 4 Funding hit a stand still on RFK. Come one guys pitch in like $10