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https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-fail-israel-prefers-lebanon

Райан Доусон: «Иранская война провалилась — Израилю выгоден формат 1×1 с Ливаном»

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-fail-israel-prefers-lebanon

Краткое содержание

Длинное стрим-обсуждение между Райаном Доусоном и его соведущими (Сулейманом и Скоттом) на онлайн-площадке. Тема — провал американо-израильской военной кампании против Ирана, удар по школе для девочек и больнице, продолжающаяся военная операция Израиля на юге Ливана, внутренняя политика США и общая оценка «империи» в её текущем кризисе. Доусон ведёт большую часть разговора, выдвигая жёсткие политические тезисы; ниже — содержательная реконструкция по разделам.

Удар по школе и больнице: «правда замалчивается»

Открывая разговор, Доусон вспоминает, как его сын увидел кадры рытья могил для погибших школьниц после удара «триплтэп» (подряд несколько прилётов в одну точку), и описывает разговор с ребёнком о том, что «Америка убила целую школу». В тот же день, по его словам, был поражён госпиталь, но новость о школе перекрыла историю с госпиталем. Ответственность была переложена на Иран («мы думаем, это сделал Иран», заявил, по версии Доусона, Дональд Трамп; Хегсет более осторожно сказал «расследуем»). По Доусону, на видео виден прилёт «Tomahawk Block IV» с тремя попаданиями.

В этот сюжет автор вписывает свой главный тезис: США практикой подражают Израилю — массированные удары по гражданским с последующим обвинением жертвы. Параллель — удар JDAM по двору больницы в Газе в 2023 году, ответственность за который Израиль переложил на «обратный полёт ракеты ХАМАС». Доусон утверждает: ответственности за инцидент в школе никто не понесёт, ИИ-системы наведения дают «много ложных позитивов», а правила боя меняются — Хегсет «зачистил всех с совестью».

Кто остался в Пентагоне и зачем американский «возврат»

Доусон уверен, что США готовят возобновление боевых действий: переброшено три авианосца — Lincoln, Ford и Bush — против одного, использовавшегося в первой попытке (вторая попытка была остановлена тяжёлыми потерями). Логика: сначала Трамп объявит «всё закончилось, идут переговоры» — и именно в этот момент будет нанесён удар. Вторая возможность — переход к «удушающей блокаде» в Ормузском проливе с расчётом на экономическое разорение Ирана.

Внутри администрации, по Доусону, идёт «перетягивание каната» между двумя израильскими сценариями: «оставить как есть» (статус-кво даёт Израилю одиночное противостояние с Ливаном и аннексию территорий) и «нокаут-удар» с круглосуточной бомбардировкой и применением «Dark Eagle» по 41 млн долларов за пуск. Сам Доусон оба сценария считает обречёнными на провал.

Карты несимметричного конфликта: почему США «не туда зашли»

Доусон обстоятельно разбирает военный баланс. Авианосцы стоят далеко не из-за «страха перед гиперзвуком» — они дальше своих собственных средств поражения и потому не приближаются. Однако даже при таком расположении Иран располагает баллистическими ракетами в горных шахтах и способен закрывать Ормуз бесконечно. По данным, которые приводит автор (со ссылкой на спутниковые снимки), американские базы в Заливе и в Иордании поражены сильнее, чем признано публично — в Иордании уничтожен радар стоимостью 300 млн долларов, потеряно несколько самолётов, израсходовано больше боеприпасов, чем заявлено, реальные потери выше отчётных.

Доусон спорит с американскими аналитиками, оценивающими шансы «развалить» Иран сценарием убийства Аятоллы: «они уже убили физика, президентов, переговорщиков ХАМАС, Насраллу в Ливане, оккупировали часть Сирии, помогли ИГИЛ захватить страны, повесили Саддама — всё это шло «по плану», но нынешняя ставка сорвалась». «Рациональный» совет Триты Парси (вернуться к статус-кво до войны с JCPOA) Доусон считает невыполнимым: «Трампу и Хегсету нельзя приписывать рациональность».

«Израиль предпочитает 1×1 с Ливаном»

Главный геополитический тезис автора: для Израиля текущая «пауза» с Ираном удобна. Без ракетных ударов из Ирана Израиль получает свободу действий в южном Ливане, где идёт системное разрушение жилых районов, бульдозерное сравнивание домов и «жёлтые линии» — попытка депопуляции и фактической аннексии. Хезболла наносит удары по личному составу ЦАХАЛ, уничтожает танки и джипы, собирает собственные дроны, но не имеет ни ВВС, ни ПВО против истребителей — отсюда тактика Израиля «бомбить апартаменты», как в Газе. Доусон отмечает, что в Bloody Thursday были разбомблены христианские и друзские деревни, не только шиитские: «они не различают шиитов, суннитов и христиан — они различают евреев и неевреев».

Иран теоретически может помогать Хезболле, но ракеты приходится пускать через Ирак и Иорданию, а это «дорогое и неэффективное» использование арсенала. Боеспособность Ирана выше там, где речь о Заливе и о ОАЭ с Катаром — экономический ущерб для глобального капитала тут на порядок выше.

Историко-моральная рамка: Шерман, Шеридан, манифест-дестини

Доусон проводит развёрнутую аналогию между поведением ЦАХАЛ и Гражданской войной в США: тактика «выжженной земли» Шермана и его уничтожение посевов, фраза Шеридана «единственный хороший индеец — мёртвый индеец», расценки штата Калифорния за скальпы коренных американцев (со специальной премией за матерей). Логика — целенаправленное обнищание и истребление. По Доусону, это работа продолжалась до 1920-х. Современный Израиль описывается им как «manifest destiny» — религиозный фанатизм плюс колониальный проект.

Внутриполитика США: свободу слова, финансы и Билзеряна

Социально-экономическая часть стрима — личный спор с банами и блокировками платежей. Доусон утверждает, что Stripe и PayPal «заморозили» ему около 440 тысяч долларов; YouTube, Patreon, Instagram и Facebook закрыты для него по политическим основаниям. Обсуждается необходимость альтернативных платёжных провайдеров (включая китайские варианты), Substack как остаток выручки. Параллельно идёт призыв поддержать Дэна Билзеряна на праймериз против Рэнди Файна в FL-6 как «наглядный пример» того, что система ломается; критика Линдси Грэма и Теда Круза.

Тезис автора о «свободном слове как первичной мере»: «они не банили бы нас, если бы мы не имели значения». Без свободного информационного пространства, по Доусону, любые действия «империи» становятся выполнимыми; с ним — невозможны.

Внутренняя инфраструктура и приоритеты бюджета

Доусон долго перечисляет «неотремонтированные мосты и берега» в США: мост Фрэнсиса Скотта Ки в Мэриленде, «не положенный камень»; берег Северной Каролины, где из-за «пробитого» волнолома 52 дома ушли в воду; вода Флинта; состояние Западной Виргинии и Арканзаса. При этом «сотни миллиардов уходят Зеленскому и Нетаньяху». В заключение разбирается локальная коррупция в Дейтона-Бич (расходы пожарного департамента в десять раз выше норматива).

Значимость и рамка

Эссе — программная публицистика Доусона: антиизраильская, антиэстеблишментная, антимилитаристская. Содержательно сильнее всего фактологическая часть (структура авианосной группировки, география ударов, логика блокады Ормузского пролива, описание инфраструктурных провалов в США) и деталь про удар по школе/госпиталю (если события подтверждаются по другим источникам).

Слабые пункты для критической рамки: развёрнутое использование враждебной этнической риторики (особенно в адрес сионизма и отдельных политиков), категорические геополитические прогнозы и обширное использование «израильтяне → дегуманизация неевреев» как сводящей рамки — это идеологическая интерпретация, не нейтральный анализ. Содержит провокационную и оскорбительную лексику, которая фиксируется без воспроизведения. Историческая часть про Якоба Франка и саббатианство опирается на упрощённое прочтение академических источников.

Текст чрезвычайно объёмен и стилистически рваный (стрим-расшифровка), многие тезисы подаются как утверждения без верификации; читать его следует как первоисточник позиции автора и как индекс тем, которые автор считает главными в апреле 2026 года.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Iran War fail Israel prefers Lebanon 1 v 1

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-fail-israel-prefers-lebanon

mentioned the girls school and whatever it was day one of this whole thing we I had the news on and it was I think it was Al Jazeera they had they were showing footage of the great like they were digging the graves for all of the bodies of the children and You know, when he looked at it, it was just a bunch of empty graves from an overhead shot, you know, excavator, you know, whatever. And my son asked, you know, what's going on? We had that conversation. Son, a whole bunch of children your age got blown up on a triple tap. It's an awful thing. America killed an entire school. My son's school is almost identical to the size of that school. It was easily relatable. These are like your friends. This is you. This is what this American empire and the entity are doing to people like you and to people like you go to school with. Iranians they get it and I guess the one tangent I'll say is I do I do agree that there is an issue with social media for children I get it but all of the the attempts now to withhold to keep kids away from social media the laws that are being passed in Australia Province here Winnipeg or Manitoba rather just did the similar sort of thing they're trying to keep children off of social media until they're 14 16 wherever the cynical side of me thinks that that's an attempt because these kids are getting the truth somehow through through what they're seeing and if they can just prevent the kids from getting the truth they won't they can be they can you know join join the war join the fight um be like your boomer grandparents uh just blind you know um I'll land there and again features Andrew um Ryan Dawson's hello big fan Suleiman of course uh love you all and thank you guys appreciate that

Scott I want to welcome Ryan onto the stage Ryan hope you're doing well how are you

I'm good people are forgetting that trump saved those nine ai girls though so how about that it's sad with the with the school it kind of overshadows the fact that they also hit a hospital the same day normally just bombing a hospital would be or ought to be front page news but because they hit the girls school too it's like too much to handle and worst of all is when they asked about it trump said we think iran did that and then hegseth said it's being investigated he was a little smarter he's like oh we're investigating it saw on film it was a tomahawk block four it was a triple tap and they incinerated him smoke coming out of the ceiling scott ritter's broken it all down before you could have said you know we had outdated maps we had ai targeting whatever some kind of accident But they didn't even own up on it They blamed the victims They said, oh, that's Iran did it to itself It reminds me of the Israelis saying When clearly a JDAM hit the courtyard of a hospital They said, oh, that was a misfire from Hamas That went backwards and landed on them No, it wasn't And it just didn't matter They ended up bombing all the hospitals anyway But, you know, we're not Israel But we have now We, meaning the United States We're now In that group With them That just targets children and won't own up to it Blames the enemy for it There's a preemptive attack during negotiations and you hit a girls school I don't think that was on purpose because there's just nothing to gain by it I think it was a massive screw up But no one's being held accountable for this Incompetence Or the hospital they hit But in the end I don't think it's I don't think they can I think they're indifferent to it You know they let AI just size up You know building dimensions and then Off they go And they're getting a lot of false positives But their attitude is so what What are they going to do about it Might makes right Machiavelli that's their Their moral compass Is like The Old Testament God Does kill them all because we can In America, that wasn't what they used to be Right, it was Eisenhower that came in and put an end to the Suez Crisis They used to be, at least, I mean, America's always tortured people, but they had to do it in secret They had to do rendition programs because the public wouldn't stomach it Even ISIS shot people, but there was huge pushback against it But for the Israelis, they celebrate it Torture, murder, rape, rape prisoners, they don't care.

The more you do it, the more popular you are. So at least culturally, a good chunk of the United States is against this type of behavior. But no one's going to be held accountable. And they're changing the rules of engagement. They're changing. Hegseth has just cleared out anybody with a conscience. And now we're murdering little kids And it's more scary than when the Israelis do it because the U.S. has far more power And we cannot allow our government to behave like Lincoln But that's Trump's model, he wants to be Abe Lincoln Heroicize him, took his terrified idea from him too That's what the Union Army used to do, wall people up in churches in Burnham children everything they raped almost 100,000 Union soldiers got syphilis spread through because they raped so many people in the areas they were taken and it's all justified by the Smith of ending slavery which they didn't do and practice themselves and it's the same kind of crap like oh we're liberating protesters and the 40,000 protesters bull or women's liberation or this nonsense.

It's some do-gooder facade to point to. It's totally disingenuous, just like the negotiations themselves. And the mask came off after saying, whoa, this is to help the protesters. This is for women's rights. And then what's he put on truth social? Do it or I will blow you back into the Stone Age. This will be a civilization ending maneuver. Like, ah, that's what you really think. You're just Durka Durka Sand People That's what he really thinks and he wants to blow you back into the stone age He didn't care about women or anybody else You are not them There was no nuclear threat There was an Epstein threat Israel wanted war with Iran and they got it And the U.S. is obeying and the U.S. is acting like the Israelis Targeting, murdering civilians and blaming it on the enemy They're going to do it again. They're all geared up. They sent in another carrier. That's not just for pageantry. And they've been gathering ammo from all over the world.

Why? Because they're going to use it. It's not going to work. But thousands of more people are going to die in this pointless war and they're going to wreck the global economy for probably a decade or more. because of political Zionism because these Jewish supremacists that are ethnically cleansing southern Lebanon and just straight up bulldozing down houses and after they loot everything in them is stealing territory for God's chosen lunatics because they promised it to themselves thousands of years ago in the book with talking donkeys and people living inside a whale and things that absolutely are not made up these are the kind of lunatics we're dealing with you can't negotiate with these people they're completely not sincere they're insincere when they say oh we did it it's not about uranium the one time they even admitted they get rid of your ballistic missiles which Iran laughed at they want regime change they want to put a cuck in power as they have in Lebanon and just about every Arab state besides Yemen that's what they want obedience for greater Israel and they are willing to rape little kids and engage in well organized and I mean billionaires organizing international child human trafficking that's what Epstein was and to a degree Stuff like OnlyFans is like the digital honey trap Because they record all that stuff And they've got these people by the shorties The short hairs if you know what I'm saying And you've got these closet homosexuals like Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz They will do whatever Israel wants And they're advocating just mass murder I see more outrage towards like Nazism which you know an ideology that died in the 40s then I do the modern murder killing and genocide it's perfectly you can get elected you could be a senator or congressman and advocate the genocide of Palestine and be fine but you can't even be a student at a college campus saying not to kill people or they'll label you a terrorist and kick you out of school.

That's where we're at. It all started because we don't have a free press. They have a monopoly on the media and that all started with Lincoln too, closing down all the newspapers. He married corporation and state. He married the state with the press and he created the income tax. and they put his fucking face on a mountain call him a liberator can't let this continue it's amazing as people say Trump's the worst president ever I'm like Clinton killed millions so did Bush Obama at least hundreds of thousands he invaded Libya and Syria the sanctions on Iraq were killing a hundred thousand people a year under Bill Clinton. And he burned his own people at Waco. Fuck that guy. And he was an Epstein pervert. Fuck him. Bush Jr. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq over nothing. About 800,000 people, so maybe a million there. Trillions of dollars spent on Israel's war. There were worse presidents. Trump's killed about 3,000 in Iran and however many in Yemen.

He's not... on their level yet, but give them time. Because these people are crazy enough to use a nuclear bomb. How do you end it? It's a weird phenomenon where people seem more black-pilled because they're more aware. They weren't as black-pilled only because of ignorance. But we actually have gained ground. it just seems like it's worse but it was way worse in the past than it is now they were killing far more people and they were getting away with a carte blanche now there's some consequence at least in the court of public opinion for these actions so it as disgusting as it is that they blew up a school full of girls at least people are able to talk about it and condemn it you couldn't do that before They bombed schools in Iraq in that war. Nothing. Israel has been doing that to Gaza way before October 7th. Nothing. As we gain more free speech, they'll lose power, but it's going to look like the worst times we've ever had.

But in reality, they're actually getting better. It's just that before you might not have been aware of how bad things were. so I just want to point that out like we are on the offense now against Empire slowly starting to win and that's what and it's like as you lift the rock and all the roaches run out from underneath it like you're seeing the disgusting nature of things but that's how they always were it's just you lifted up the cover now and now you get to look at these demons in the face I think one of the pivotal things that people could do especially if they live in Florida sixth district is getting Dan Bilzerian to primary Randy fine because if he wins more people will run they don't because they just think it's impossible but it's not you can beat these demons fat Jew Randy fine he doesn't do anything for Florida he's an Israeli firster he's got Israeli flag in his office place tires in the US flag, by the way.

They openly work for a foreign state in a foreign state that colonizes its neighbors. They'll murder babies. They're not being prosecuted for this. See any Israeli soldiers going to jail for their war crimes in Gaza? No, because it's state ordained racism. that star of David flag ought to be looked at like somebody just raised up a swastika that's the attitude people ought to have and the backlash should be just

as severe I hand it back to you Sully Great points Ryan Ryan what are things happening now because a lot of people who thought that the U.S. were going to go back in now are changing their mind they think they might not go back in anymore this might be it what's your thoughts

It looks like they are going to go back in. They've geared up. They've got their ships in place. They've got their ammo in place. I think he'd make an announcement because they always do this. They always lie. They'll say, oh, look, it's over. Oh, look, we're negotiating. And that's exactly when they hit. They always do the opposite. And that's how he's behaving. And, you know, it's kind of like my heart and head are in different directions. I don't want a war. and so I want to say yeah maybe it's over but it isn't he still has his stupid blockade and his stupid ships out there and they realize these bases in the Gulf are vulnerable they get lit up the only things that didn't get hit and I said this before the war started were the carriers where they really only used one right the first Gulf War they used six or the second Gulf War excuse me last Last time. They used six against Iraq. They just had the Lincoln.

Because the Ford was out of commission before the war started. They had the toilet problem and the laundry problem, and it wasn't there. Now they have the Lincoln, the Ford, and the Bush. And that's going to cause problems. That's round-the-clock bombings with whatever standoff munitions they have left. Still isn't going to work. But Iran's gonna, you know, they would release these waves during the pauses. This is not gonna be a pause if you have free carriers. I hate this. I want a mutiny on those ships. Those ships, they're like, oh, look, they're scared to go. I hate this analysis. They're like, they're scared to go in close because they'll get hit with hypersonic missile. I'm like, no, they're not. They can shoot further than you can. Why would they get in close when they can hit you and you can't hit them? That's just dumb. They're just being like, Carriers are a problem and anybody that just like oh what is that gonna do and they had all these AI videos of carriers getting hit and sunk and stuff and none of that actually happened not one chip was hit at all and they couldn't sink those if they sat still they do not understand how powerful a fucking aircraft carrier is and now they're sitting three But Iran is still going to hit the Gulf countries anyway.

They think like, well, as long as we don't launch from there or fire from there, like, no, no, no. If you hit infrastructure and power plants and things in Iran, then they are going to do it back. Whether your military is there or not, they have to. It's for their existence is at stake. I've got children yanking on me. So I went over all of this with the U.S. Naval Officer recently. It's on Substack, ryandawson.org if you want to see. And Salaman, we should do a Substack show soon so I can boost yours.

Yeah, let's do it. I've already set it up so I can send you. Let's do it. I've already set my Substack up, so I'm going to trial it tomorrow for the first time. And then if it works properly, then I'll do it with you and do like a one. and multi-stream so it should be good yeah I mean you can't rely on YouTube they'll

yank it from you at a moment's notice you know it's just uh the way they have it set it up they can terminate you for any reason at all right so yeah well the thing

was do you remember about two years ago there was that Mattie Abbey fight with Elon Musk and Elon Musk kind of Shadowband him and he the reason he Shadowband him is because TAB wanted to stay on Substack and Musk wanted him to post on X and it seems like TAB made the right decision because TAB is I'm looking at it now he has like a half a million subscribers on Substack Matyabi and on the other hand like anyone who stayed on X and stuck by Musk threw them all over anyway like I don't think even like Emael Shung who's uh Musk's like stuff most off more than anyone else is crying about all the changes on x and how he's not getting paid and all these type of things so he's getting the

key did well you want to know how much uh money i have frozen on stripe and paypal that they never paid and took take a guess yeah but take a guess how much stripe and paypal have taken what like 20k i know 440 000 half a million wow That's what I should have been paid. That's what people tried to send to me.

And they won't give it to me.

I'm like, well, then give it back to the customers. They're not doing that either. So I'm fighting with them right now. I'm like, this is I know how I know how to market and I know my shit. It's like I'm not allowed to use Patreon, PayPal, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, all this stuff. If I was, I'd be a multimillionaire. but I'm not allowed and even when I make my own website and I hook up the stuff then Stripe pulls the rug and it's like Jesus Christ Substack is the only thing I can do so of course I promoted but that's 99% of my revenue now because I ain't allowed to use anything else I wish Iran would make a payment processor it's like you want to you want to destroy Zog replace PayPal with something exactly I looked up I added up all the things I was like great 82k in the last six months I'm like well where is the money then I'm arguing with that dude I'm gonna do a video just on stripe how they fucking steal everybody's money I'm like well they won't give it to me they won't give it to them can you imagine I could finance all my own films with a fraction of that money

Yeah I'm in the same situation I think from when I was banned from when I was basically demonetized just from X just from X not to anything else you're looking at probably based on how much I was earning before October 7th I would probably got about 400,000 just up till now just from X because I was part of the original X creator program so I was getting as much as like Mario and Dom Luca the whole original crew and then obviously being banned from everything else so yeah I feel you bro and then obviously giving up the contract with Mario which is millions I feel you I feel you it's not easy unfortunately it's because of a political alignment too like

I haven't broken any rules or anything I'm against all these fucking stupid ass white supremacists and you know fuck all those people but it doesn't matter it's clearly because of my position against Israel that I'm banned on everything

Same thing, same thing. I'm super careful to try and not hurt people's feelings. And even then, that's not good enough. You will get banned because you disagree with Israel.

Well, I've been dealing with this shit since 2005. They took away my MySpace. They took away my AOL. They don't want me to be able to reach people. They don't want me to be able to get paid.

Yeah, yeah. Basically to be in this game you have to give up a lot like for example the millions of dollars a contract I gave up that was like It is what it is anyway it sounds like we're both crying about it but in our shoes you'll know how it is Well

it's uh that's why what I'm doing I'm trying to say like we need a fair playing field if we want to stop schoolgirls from getting bombed they're like our side needs to be allowed to speak and earn a living because the main deterrent the main reason a lot of the journalists just won't go there is they're like if I say that it'll they'll end my career exactly and yeah if you someone's got children you take their income away I mean it went from that to you know I make from strike right now zero zero all year long they won't pay me it's a

disgrace bro

it's fucked and I'm like okay and other people see that and they go I don't want to get the Dawson treatment so they're not going to speak out I think I've found a way around it I'm waiting for approval and I ain't even going to explain what it is because then they'll go shut this other thing down but we'll see maybe Tuesday or Wednesday there might be a solution here and I'm going to offer it to people like you Jeremy McKenzie like anyone that's been blanket banned over nothing like this is why all we need is one we need like one honest company and I think we can

win this I agree I agree you don't know how many meetings I've been in behind closed doors to try and you know people saying they want to set up some like amazing social media but it just it never goes down for us like

No I want to see one already up and then join it you know I was like I want a payment processor that isn't going to ban me in two weeks like I'm not putting in all this effort just for you to rug pull me later like I'd like it just to be direct to bank get rid of all these middlemen just like customer straight to me can't can't do that nope so I'm looking at some Chinese stuff I'm like that's how bad it gets but We'll see We'll see Hey That might break Ryan Yeah maybe If you're a Chinese woman

No What the So just coming back to the To the Politics of it Like I was speaking to Like Larry Johnson Daniel Davis Like all these guys Are thinking There's less of a chance That they're gonna be a strike now I feel like now it's going to be a blockade and Trump will leave it.

Yeah, they're going to strangle them economically to see how that goes. And when that fails, because it will, they'll discuss the other options. There is a bit of a tug of war right now in the Pentagon. The Israelis actually prefer it how it is because they like their one-on-one with Lebanon and not being hit with ballistic missiles from Iran. even though Iran's not being bombed they're like no we need we're going to take southern Lebanon so we just keep the status quo even though they're the ones that push for the war against Iran well that's before they knew how badly it was going to go so this kind of stalemate now where um America is not bombing Iran Iran's not bombing the Gulf states or shooting down American planes is perfect for the Israelis because it's like now we get a one-on-one with Lebanon the Lebanese government is you know got their chair at the corner of the bed And so it's just Hezbollah and the Israeli army is not doing well, but their air force is, and they are absolutely destroying civilians in southern Lebanon.

And this is the beginning of the war. I said, well, they'll just fly over them and bomb Beirut and then bomb everything. They made the yellow line. That was like the first video we did. This is what Israel is going to do. They're going to do the Gaza thing. They're going to avoid the army as much as possible and attack civilians. That's how they are. And Hezbollah can't kill enough soldiers fast enough, or can they? I mean, that's the question mark. But, you know, homes have been destroyed. There's even with this war ends, there's nowhere for those people to move back to. They're trying to annex that territory. That's the whole point. But when Kramsha 4s and things were landing in hitting Haifa and Tel Aviv, they were screaming for timeout. They're out of interceptors. They can't do it. So one of the dumbest things America could do would be to restart the war and then Iran can hit Israel again too.

What they really want is like regime change. They economically strangle them or they want America to nuke them. But they don't want to do what they were doing before because that wasn't working at all. So it's this weird shift. What Trump just does, whatever the Israelis say. However, there are people in his group that think with we give in enough carriers who only had one and you know we get this many we use our dark eagles $41 million missiles and that then you know we can do the final knockout blow. I disagree with that, that that would work, but that's what they think will work and so that faction is also tugging on them. and that's also back there's two Israeli factions and they're like we need to do this knockout blow use the dark eagles do this have round the clock bombing with the carriers bomb their electricity take out their bridges down then they'll come running to mommy or whatever they will not but this is the other plan so he's just choosing between these two Israeli plans one saying hey leave it how it is where you are destroying Lebanon that's the goal and strangle them economically bomb them later and the other one's like we can do a knockout blow bomb them now but bombing's

gonna happen eventually there's people discussing I think it's treat a party and quite a few others they think that I just don't think this could happen but anyway they think that there is a possibility America could just leave so you just leave you keep the sanctions open Iran has control of the strait

I have I think Trita Parsi knows Iran like the back of his hand utmost respect for him but I think he is thinking like a rational person and he's thinking you know if they were smart they could just do this and sanction them like if you look before the war there was a currency collapse there was rebellion in the streets like all they had to do was nothing they if now if they could get back to the pre-war status where the strait was already open and uranium was on the table and they had the JCPOA that would be the dream they can't even get back to how it was but I think it's a mistake to bestow rationality onto Trump and Hegseth they don't possess that they don't think like Trita or me or you they're not rational and so It'd be very easy to predict things if you were like, well, you know, if they were smart, you would do this. But they're not smart. that's the problem that's why I always like did you divide by retard like I love this is a lovely equation you know now multiply by retarded because that's what you have with the Trump administration it was absolutely stupid to start a war with only one carrier in place where you thought if you kill the Ayatollah everything would collapse in a hunky dory because some Mossad agents told you so whatever so dumb And they lost more planes than they admitted.

They burned up more munitions than they admitted. They have more casualties than they're admitting. And we're seeing from satellite photos just how bad those bases got tagged. Far worse than they admitted. It would have been better just to admit what happened because the more you lie, the larger the assumption is going to be like, oh, this many died or da-da-da-da-da. they lost a lot of stuff and they're out of interceptors I mean out radars have been destroyed billion dollar radar a 300 million dollar one in Jordan wrecked by a drone not going well for the empire because they went in half cocked it's like it's like Mr. Miyagi said you like do it or don't you know squish like grape it's like crossing the highway you stay on the left side of the road or the right you don't hang out in the middle because you get by a car they went in like so-so and it didn't work and it's a victory of their own success because they had Stuxnet they had assassinated scientists probably killed the president they had killed officers they had assassinated Nasrallah in Lebanon they killed negotiators from Hamas they had annexed a piece of Syria they were openly financed ISIS and allowed him to take over a country murdered Gaddafi took over the area invaded Iraq had a kangaroo court for Saddam hanged him like everything had been going to plan and they thought next you know we'll kill the Ayatollah it'll crumble there's protests did it and it didn't work it did the opposite and they don't know what to do and the rational thing for the empire to do if you really want to wreck Iran and do the most damage and allow Israel to take the most territory would be Walk away.

Keep the ceasefire as it is. Allow the war in Lebanon to continue with the Israelis destroying all their stuff. Allow the annexation of the West Bank as it's been going and the Israelis take all their stuff. Let Gaza starve and don't allow Aden as it is now and they take all their stuff. They could do all that just by not messing with Iran and just give them the straight or open it up. Like fine, pay the toll. it'll hurt everyone else a lot more than the US like that's a mistake you're gonna have to just take some concessions from your screw up but if you continue to you know to mess with the bear or whatever the lion is maybe a better analogy then it's gonna tear you up they you don't have an answer to their geography they have got ballistic missiles buried down in the mountains they can close the strait indefinitely the only way you can open it is to comply to their demands But the one of the demands is knocking off in Lebanon and Israel's not going to do that.

And that's going to be the part of the deal that unravels all the rest of it.

What's your thoughts on the fact that you mentioned that this Lebanon against Israel 101 and some people feel like Iran maybe should jump in and help them because Hezbollah essentially jumped into the escalated part of this war for Lebanon.

is Israel's going to invade them anyway. I mean, it's not played stupid. Iran did help them and delivered some vital shots on Israel, but they got to shoot over top of Iraq and Jordan to hit Israel. It's not the most effective use of very expensive missiles. Like they can do a lot more damage total to international Zionism by wiping out the UAE and Qatar and things like that way easier. and damages I mean they take they're stripping billions away probably a billion dollars a day that hurts them too the southern port and northern ports of Israel are closed people have left their soldiers are getting killed their tanks are being blown up they are not doing well against Hezbollah but Iran can't really like move an army kind of like on the land across anywhere without getting annihilated by an air force you are seeing the PMU take over US territory in Iraq lightly defended and this is why I'm like there's no boots on the ground they can't even hold on to Victoria and Erbil they're not going to go into Tehran but there isn't much Iran can do other than long range fire into Israel that's not the most effective use of their gear Hezbollah does have their own components and ability to build drones and things themselves they don't need to import them from anybody else it's just they don't have an answer to the Israeli Air Force there's no air defense systems to do anything about these uh well I mean they have they can hit helicopters but there's nothing they can do against the jets for example and or long-range fire there's not they don't really have a navy or anything either there's nothing they can do about Israeli ships they can just hit the infantry and they are and they're doing damage the thing is on the flip side israel can't hold that territory either and so they're out there thinking it seems to be we'll just destroy it all and they're just going into people's homes and destroying them they've got excavators and bulldozers and they're just doing the west bank thing where there's bee burns knock the houses down like if i can't have it neither can you we'll just wreck it and force you to leave and depopulate this area And that seems to be their goal.

And it is achievable. This is why we need international intervention. I'm like, you can't just roll in and bull those down civilian homes. Like they have nothing to do with Hezbollah anyway. And the whole reason there is a Hezbollah is a reaction to you consistently attacking Lebanon. They didn't exist till the middle of the 1980s. Was it in 87 or in 83, whatever, Hamas 87. They didn't exist. That whole faction is a response to consistent attacks on Lebanon by the Israelis They run the narrative, they run the media There's no Hezbollah lobby, there's no Lebanese equivalent of AIPAC There's no Arab Epstein out there getting blackmailing politicians or bribing them with kids So they will lose in the media front. So it's really like all hands. It's the fate of southern Lebanon rests right now with Hezbollah and how effective they are at killing the GCL, God's chosen lunatics, hitting them in their staging areas, blowing up their tanks, blowing up their Jeeps and take out some of those tractors.

But the world also needs to see what the Israelis are doing. Like they're the aggressor. They're in Lebanon destroying homes. not military base. They're just in there destroying if you're not a Jew, then you're not a person and we will kill you or we will steal your house or we'll burn it or we'll flatten it. That is like Genghis Khan level destruction. And where is the outcry? The outcry is not over Lebanon or Gaza. The outcry is over the straight because oil. Morality is not in the heart, it's in the wallet. That is, you want Europeans to move, raise gas prices. I mean, I applaud Spain and Italy and now France not allowing their airspace, not allowing their ports for U.S. ships for their stupid war. But where was that for Gaza? And they wouldn't do that for Lebanon either. And they actually helped them attack Libya. They're only doing this because of the economic backlash of the strait being closed.

There's not a moral decision like, oh, you can't kill children. It's, ah, oil's expensive. We need to do something. Let's be nice so Iran will let our ships out. There is no moral compass in the world except for maybe Yemen. The only state I see acting purely out of like, you can't do that. We will fight you Because we're in this amoral business mentality Just business, just some Yankee If you can do it, then it's right by the fact that it's possible Therefore, nothing's wrong I don't have a solution not a quick one anyway but I know free speech would makes everything they do harder in fact I think it would end it they wouldn't censor us if we didn't matter true

completely agree with that Ryan Ryan in terms of Lebanon Things have gone quite bad in the sense of the ferocious levels of bombing that's occurring. It's been called Bloody Thursday, I think it is. It was really bad, especially on Thursday. What's your thoughts on that? They've been bombing a lot. Also, Christian Villages, they're not even solely attacking Shia areas, if one thinks that. It's Christian, Druze. These guys have no parameters by which they stop

If you're not a Jew, you're not a person They don't care if you're a Christian or Shia or Sunni or no religion They will kill you because you're not them They're for greater Israel If you're Lebanese, you're a dead man There is an invading army and it's just like they don't distinguish between soldier and civilian They'll go right into a business, a house, whatever and they'll wreck it They find you, they'll kill you Same thing with the Air Force. Their Air Force just bombs apartments. And they did the same thing in Gaza. You know, before that, they had their letter bomb campaign in Egypt and all manner of terrorism all over the place. They don't care about civilians. their mentality is like Sherman from the Civil War they're just like burn it all burn the farms you know salt the land kill everyone you can find or Sheridan he's this guy quoted he was also in the Civil War but he's in the Western Wars afterward he said the only good Indians a dead Indian total genocide against Native Americans they they would shoot the buffalo they would burn their crops they would just they would kill women children state of California even would get offer you silver for scalps and you got paid more for the mothers because that's who gives you produces babies they were trying to wipe them out like as an ethnicity like completely annihilate these people like all that was a long time ago like mmm that was happening all the way up until the 1920s so that's not that long ago but nothing changed same at that manifest destiny that's Israel today now they're not not quite as bad as offering you money to you know bring body parts back and but they don't have to because they just pay their soldiers salaries and they know what they're doing and then they rape the prisoners and they rape them with like hot iron rods in their anuses and stuff and like Forced amputations, dry boarding, feeding tubes, they do all that stuff.

That society shouldn't exist. And the things that Israelis are pissed about is not the murder of their neighbors. It's like just some economic issues, you know, and Orthodox don't want to be conscripted. They're like, well, they don't want to risk anything. They don't care that you're out there killing them. They just don't have to put any skin in the game. It's a irredeemable society built on religious fanaticism. A holy land, you know, we're going to bring the diaspora from all over the world and conquer this area and kick out the natives. And the only thing I can think of on that scale of insanity was the colonization of the Americas. Maybe but like how the Spanish treated the Caribbean they just killed everybody. I can't think you'd have to go way back to like the Mongolian horde for people to operate like this. That's what we're dealing with. It's not a movie there's not some automatic don't worry in the end the good guys win like nah track record says otherwise.

They toppled all these nations in the Middle East already It's not like it was great before that It was French and British colonialism Can't get a break Same thing with Ukraine Like can you tell me the last time they had an honest leader? From Holdborn to now It's been nothing but problems And uh I just don't I think it's a fantasy like let's just vote harder you know like we'll get the right person and uh but if there was ever a time it's it's the current time if we could get someone like Thomas Massey as president they would fix a lot you fix America you fix the world because they're the ones with the most power but it's so backwards that we have a president true socialing about Patting himself on the back to rescue invented women that were made from AI. That has to be peak clown. I can't imagine. I did not like Biden, Obama, Bush, none of them, but I can't imagine any of them being that fucking stupid.

Well, this is the fat orange clown that we have. He believed it. it's not even a good lie like you're insulting me with your psyops it's very low energy very low effort but let's hope that well we're like well it's only sanctions well I don't want those either just have free trade just buy the damn oil and gas and and increase everybody's standard of living by having a cheaper oil and gas Iran's not my enemy they didn't cancel me off anything that was Zionist Jews that did that not the Persians imagine if we just told Israel to fuck off and we had bought oil from Iraq and Libya and Iran and never put sanctions on any of them and never had sanctions on Syria the standard of living would rise across the board Israel doesn't give us anything but more demands and pedophiles. Their economy would collapse if we didn't subsidize it. But now we're in a position that's like, well, with $39 trillion in debt, we got another war.

Don't worry, Americans with no health care will pay for it. and we got these hee haw jack off missile johnny's that are just so in love with the look at this kind of gun and this missile and this number needed a 4a seek me marry they get they just get lost in the militarism because they're not doing it you know and it's not their kids being blown up at school and they just uh I don't know they hate the muslims or whatever bunch of sand niggers like these are the kind of childish morons that are that follow everything Trump does and believes everything he says. I mean, I agree with the Joker from Batman like this town needs an enema. He needs such a wake up call. You morons. They're lying to your face. Your life is the way it is because of all the money they spend on bullshit for Israel. You could have had 89 cent gas. if you didn't invade Iraq if it started there there was no reason to fight the Taliban for 21 years just to put the Taliban back in charge total waste of time a lot of opium hit the streets tell you liberated that heroin good job and we don't need bases in Japan Korea Germany don't need any of this Empire total waste of money our own cities are falling apart They can't even replace one jetty in North Carolina, which has caused like 52 houses to fall in the water and no people did not build their house next to the water, the water used to be hundreds of yards away.

But it keeps getting smaller and smaller every year because there's a big fucking hole in the jetty that nobody asked them to put there. But it's kind of like once you dam a river, you have to maintain the dam, otherwise it's gonna flood. You know, if you either leave it alone or do it, but then you got to do it forever. And they, you know, they did the halfway thing. And I'm cynical enough in that situation. Like, yeah, I think they're allowing these things to fall in the water. So later some Yankee from New York can buy up all the land and then they'll fix the jetty. And then they put their own houses on there and they're all beachfront and they make millions of dollars. That's what's actually happening. Like Dukes of Hazzard, but real. you know it's we got our own problems when I'm saying domestically with the France cut Scott Francis keys bridge in Maryland got hit by that barge remember has that been repaired not even one stone we can't fix our own states they gave more money to Israel then West Virginia or Arkansas which are part of the union and Lord they have problems could be fixed we got kids running around on psychotropic shooting up their schools like there's so many problems in America and like you're when you're giving away hundreds of billions of dollars to people like Zelensky you know probably went right up his nose and Netanyahu like two crazy Jews that you know buy multiple houses for themselves and wage war on their neighbors Zelensky broke the men's two accord and Netanyahu is gone is just he's a monster that's where your money goes not fixing the bridge not protecting against beach erosion not cleaning up the water in Flint or just name the problem to problem nah you gotta go pay for Mordecai's healthcare in Tel Aviv so stupid so sick of it I'm supporting Bilzerian and I'll be in his corner when he needs to make real political decisions I don't know how much you know I just know like just I want a common sense person like well quit doing stupid stuff Daytona Beach spent $500,000 for the fire department on vehicle maintenance typical bill by the way per year is around $44,000 they spent $500,000 and they got subpoenaed and they went in on April 29th but it's closed session we'll see what happened that's randy fines district by the way that amount of graphs and stuff that you could never get away with that if we had a functional press and i finally i think news 13 it's a channel in florida covered it a little like it was pelosi level corruption i got if you could say trump level because the insider trade i think he's surpassed her but um Yeah, they moved a location.

They did not need all that for trucks or whatever. And they spent like $50,000 on like five guys and Burger King and stuff from there. It's called a P card. There's if you can drill into any county and find the corruption. Because there's just nobody pays attention to these things. That's a mayor problem, mostly, but they do get some federal funding. Randy fine doesn't he's too busy voting for the kill switch for automobiles he's there for Israel you can you need to get rid of him and you need to get rid of Lindsey Graham like please South Carolina get this faggot out of office anyone else would be better a lamppost would be better than Lindsey Graham Although I think he'd probably look at a lamppost and think I can take it. It'll fit. Anyway, other than that, I hope everyone has a great day. I'm going to get some late breakfast and I'll talk to y'all later.

Appreciate it as always, Ryan. Thanks for coming on. Much love.

I'd appreciate if people would add me on here and just at least look at the Substack it's my name