🏠/rayan dawson/2026/04/08/Iran War, An Agreement to make an Agreement
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https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-an-agreement-to-make-an

Война с Ираном: соглашение о подготовке к соглашению

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-an-agreement-to-make-an

Краткое содержание

Райан Досон анализирует итоги военного противостояния США/Израиля с Ираном и условия достигнутого перемирия. По его оценке, Иран вышел победителем: сохранил контроль над Ормузским проливом, добился признания права на обогащение урана и заставил США уйти из региона де-факто.

Основные тезисы

  • Боевые действия продолжаются до пятницы — тогда в Исламабаде пройдут переговоры по иранскому 10-пунктному плану (не американскому 15-пунктному).
  • Иран изложил условия и прекратил коммуникацию — США вынуждены были слушать.
  • Израиль потерял радары и несёт потери на земле; южный Ливан разрушен с воздуха, но Израиль проигрывает наземную операцию.
  • Ормузский пролив теперь под контролем Ирана: $2 млн за проход судна (делятся с Оманом).
  • Ирак назван главным бенефициаром: ПМС и союзные силы уничтожили американские базы в Багдаде; США отступили в Иорданию — «впервые за 23 года Ирак свободен от империалистических господ».
  • Ключевые условия иранского плана: снятие санкций, вывод войск США из Персидского залива, гарантии безопасности, сохранение баллистических ракет и ядерной программы.
  • В последний день войны Иран нанёс удар по крупнейшему нефтехимическому комбинату Саудовской Аравии, уничтожив 7% её ВВП.
  • Досон: Трамп «блефовал» угрозами тотального уничтожения и полной капитуляции, получил лишь «соглашение о подготовке к соглашению».
  • Марк Левин публично «сломался» при виде иранских условий — Досон комментирует это с иронией.
  • Израиль не хочет завершения войны: Нетаньяху использует конфликт для предотвращения тюремного заключения и стремится аннексировать часть Южного Ливана.
  • Пост завершается продвижением памятной футболки и анонсом стрима с Сулейманом Ахмедом.

Значимость

Досон представляет перемирие как стратегическое поражение США и Израиля и геополитическую победу Ирана, изменившую баланс сил в регионе: контроль над Ормузом, освобождение Ирака и ослабление аравийских монархий.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Iran War, An Agreement to make an Agreement

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-an-agreement-to-make-an

The war will continue until Friday between Israel and Lebanon. The Houthis (Ansar Allah) will do whatever they decide to do.

On Friday the US meets in Islamabad to go over Iran’s 10 point offer. Let me repeat, this is to go over Iran’s 10 point offer, not Trumps 15 point offer made on behalf of Israel.

Iran basically said this is our offer and then cut communications. In this proposal is in end of hostilities on all fronts.

Israel has no radar and they are getting lit up. Likewise southern Lebanon is being destroy from the air but Israel is losing badly on the ground.

Trump went from we will only accept total surrender just weeks ago to sitting down and listening to Iran’s conditions.

There will be no restrictions on Iranian ballistic missiles. The Strait of Hormuz now belongs to Iran and they will be issuing fees like a toll booth to use it.

Note that the Strait was already open and free before the war. Trump has gained absolutely nothing from this war. America lost lives and billions of dollars. Only to now have to pay for shipping lanes that were once free. They will need to remove their military footprint from the Persian Gulf. Uranium enrichment will continue on Iranian soil how they see fit.

One of the biggest outcomes on the battle field of this war is the liberation of Iraq. The PMU and other forces destroyed the US based in Baghdad. The US had to retreat to Jordan. Iraq is finally free of these imperialist overlords for the first time in 23 years.

Trump will try to spin this as a victory for himself and he will say he got the Strait open with his threats of annihilation. Quite the opposite. The big bad wold huffed and he puffed and the house stood still.

Iran issues its counter offer three days before Trump started going nuts on Truth Social. End the end after a failed raid, he made one final bluff and Iran simply cut off communications. Old hot air had no choice but to accept Iran’s offer. He physically could not open the Strait and he could not use intimidation either.

Iran destroyed the special forces. they were no where close to running out of ballistic missiles and they closed the Strait. If the US went in heavy on the ground Iran would shut down the Red Sea too.

It was checkmate.

So what else are they demanding.

Sanction relief

Get out of the Gulf not just Iraq

Hormuz now cost 2 million per ship split between Iran and Oman

Security gurantees

Iran maintain ballistic missile and Uranium enrichment programs

The war ends on all fronts.

It is this last point that will have the most problems. Israel doesn’t want the war to end. they saw it as their last chance. They want to annex more land. They want to steal a piece of Southern Lebanon. Netanyahu also needs a war to stay out of prison. Israelis are furious that he started a war he could not win. They are not mad at the immorality of bombing schools and hospitals. They are mad because they lost. Israel took hits and gained nothing. Iran is about to become richer than ever before. They now are the top of the wealth mountain not the Gulf Arab toilet regimes.

In the final day of the war Iran hit Saudi Arabia’s largest petro-chemical plant knocking out 7% of their total GDP.

I pray the Americans simply walk away and hat Israel is too arrogant and stupid to quit and so they continue to get bombed, their tanks blown up and IDF killed. Mark Levin had a complete crash out as the kids say. Watching him cry was funny.

We are celebrating this Agreement to do an Agreement with this commemorative shirt. Get one now support ANC Report

I was on a show predicting this outcome unfortunately that person didn’t upload it to their YouTube yet. I will be on with Sulaiman Ahmed 8pm EST to talk about the ceasefire.

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