Райан Доусон и Ларри Джонсон: провал «спасательной миссии», война с Ираном и глобальные последствия

Larry Johnson the rescue mission doesn't add up

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/larry-johnson-the-rescue-mission

And the lyrics are?

You want me to play? I may play a rap song about Lindsey Graham at the end of this talk. But what I'm going to do is I'll let Larry leave so he can disavow everything that's said. It's pretty gnarly. He's playing with the gay hamsters and stuff. Stay tuned, guys. After this talk is over, you get the maturity level drops and it's a Lindsey Graham rap song. That's how I deal with stress. Larry Johnson back on the show. Pretty good shirt, but you know.

You got authentic Hawaiian. I'm Florida. Florida is like Hawaii without volcanoes. More English. Well, actually, I don't know. You don't get treated as a Howley. At least here you don't get treated as a Howley.

They think I'm native when I go. Oh, okay. Because I am. I got the Black hair and brown eyes, whatever. Not really tan right now, middle of winter in Korea. But anyway, we've got important things to discuss. Did you see Trump's latest True Social? And I had to actually go look because I thought, nah, that's funny. Whoever wrote that. No, it was real. I'm talking about the crazy bastard. She said, open the straight, you effing crazy bastards. Praise Allah. Yeah.

The cheese has slipped off the cracker with that man. They need to get him a nice white coat, have him try it on. It's got the long sleeves, and they need to just secure those sleeves behind his back, walk him out, get him in a facility, feed him some pudding or some McDonald's hamburgers, and turn on Fox News and tell him to watch.

He might be happy. Foreshadowing when he was handing out fries at McDonald's. Yeah. 25th Amendment Section 4. That's what we need. I mean, that's the president of the United States. When I was a boy, I actually looked at that as a respected office. You know, I think Reagan was there. My earlier memories I actually saw and just thought, oh, yeah, you know, it's the president of the that's the leader of our country. They would never write something like that. cussing and calling people bastards and saying praise Allah, which is just mocking the religion because you know he's not a Muslim. Yeah. And who let him, like, does he have no check to be like Trump? He can't write that. There's no, they take that away from him.

He's his own personal moderator. Yeah. It was shocking. Jeffrey Wernick, who's the owner of Bitchute. So, you know, he's not somebody of no consequence. And he did an extended video this morning just saying, look, it's time for the 25th Amendment. This guy needs to go. This is beyond the pale. And even, you know, a number of people who consider themselves Trump supporters or expressing alarm over this. Actually, I attribute it to his age. I remember my mother, when she was in her prime, she would never say a bad word, derogatory about anybody else but man once she hit like 82 83 it's like that filter the i'll call it the civilization filter it got broken disassembled whatever and man she just blurred out whatever she was thinking and a lot of times it was not appropriate that's trump let's see now 79 almost 80. I thought he was 80, but maybe he's just 79. But I think he's showing signs of early dementia or the signs of dementia.

Confabulation. He's frequently telling stories that he genuinely believes are true, but they're completely false. But he believes they're true. So it's not like he's lying and telling a lie. that, uh, uh, he, he actually believes his lies.

I think when he gets lied to, if it agrees with his worldview, he's like, yeah, yeah. And he's accepts it as true. So he surrounded himself with a bunch of yes men, which, which is, this ties into another recent event. There was sort of a mass firing, a mass exodus, you know, there with Hegseth fired, uh, uh, general George and some others. And then Pam Bondi got fired as well. Were they actually fired or were they going to resign and they didn't want to know the Joe Kent situation? So they said, no, you can't. You're fired. There's no reason given for firing so far. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, I think Bondi should have been fired a long time ago. She was incompetent. But I think it was more because she didn't do enough. She wasn't, I think, aggressive enough in protecting Trump on the Jeffrey Epstein fight.

Well, he's mad at her because she took a black Sharpie to his favorite memories.

Yeah. Now, the DOD situation. I would like to believe that General George and General Hodney, and I forget the name of the chaplain. William Green also got fired. But they Neither Hodney nor George. were in any kind of chain of command with respect to the war in Iran. I mean, they're not in any kind of decision-making capacity. Their capacity is more like overseeing, like you're in charge of remodeling the house, okay? So that's their job. Hodney's job was to figure out what decorations to put, you know, how to decorate the house, you know, what kind of wallpaper to have. George's overall job with respect to the Army, remake the Army, figure out what are the best conditions. Now, if they had expressed their – they were known as being politically tied to Biden. And the concern I have here with their firings is the this really started under Barack Obama, more so than George W. Bush or Bill Clinton was the politicization of the military.

And they're trying to create a Praetorian Guard. So you, as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, whatever, your loyalty is to the president, not the Constitution. Yet the oath they take is not to take and uphold the honor of Donald Trump. It's to protect, defend, and uphold the Constitution. And that's where the loyalties ought to be. But unfortunately now, it's getting pretty clear, and it's passing down through the officer ranks. You want to get ahead? Get on your knees and be prepared to kiss some serious Donald Trump ass.

That's what he said about the Saudis. Oh, you don't want to kiss my butt? Yeah. Yeah, Mohammed bin Sutherland. And yeah, I always screw up the initial stuff. It's like dyslexic in my head, like MBS, MSB, whatever. I always mess them up. BS should be easy to just call him BS, but Mr. BS. I mean, I remember when he kidnapped... Hariri and held them in the Ritz Hotel from Lebanon. I mean, this, these people are pretty nuts. They're the ones that chainsawed Khashoggi as well. These Gulf Arab allies have been sponsoring ISIS and the civil war in Sudan with the, with Hamedes forces and stealing gold. And I don't have a like crocodile tears for these people either, but Trump has lost it. That, calling people fucking bastards and giving them an ultimatum saying, we're going to blow up your bridges and power plants. He's like, it's going to be bridges and power plants day, like a holiday. He wrote this on Easter, like this way to go hang out with your children or something or grandchildren.

I think what are you happy Easter, by the way, Easter there, go to jail, go to church. Sure. I don't know. He might, he might combust when he walks through the door where he shook BB's hand, his fingers start flaming. Yeah, that's what he did on Easter. He's like, oh, let's threaten a country. It's a war crime to just go after civilian infrastructure, by the way. He's just announcing that. Not that the U.S. obeys international law at all, but there's no statesmanship. And I think the Israelis are running in the same problem that you just described where no one can be the bearer of bad news. You have to constantly lie or you lose your position because they keep doing the same mistakes over and over. They're sending in these... totally obsolete tactic of, uh, of tank columns. And these Marikava tanks are getting lit up by Hezbollah over and over again. And I mean, dozens of them, maybe a hundred by now have been disabled.

Probably at least a hundred according to Alistair, Alistair crook. Yeah. Yeah. There's levels of like devastation, like immobilized down to like completely toast, toasted bagels. Um, But I think there's like a four man crew. So that's a lot of casualties. And they have it's FPV Jones are hitting them. And we know because they filmed themselves doing it. Did they learn nothing from the Ukraine Russia conflict? Do you see any armored columns in Ukraine anymore? No. Why drones like but they did it anyway. If there is someone that could go up the chain of command and say, sir, we've been getting lit up. We don't have an answer. There's no roll cages or anything. You put a bird cage around the tank, that stops a lot of drones, at least the cheap ones. There's nothing. They're going in there with nothing. Who cares if someone calls them cope cages online? They work better than not having one.

Yeah, the other thing that's interesting about it is that Hezbollah is using fiber optic drones. So they've adopted that technique that was developed by the Russians, to a lesser extent Ukraine. So it's, you know, it is deja vu all over again. They learned, the Israelis and their arrogance and their hubris have learned nothing from 2006. and as a result they are now repeating the same mistake and they're getting chewed up and they're getting mauled and they'll that'll continue for about another two weeks and then they'll decide oh never mind we'll have to wait to fight again and it exposes the complete lie that they had pushed that they had completely decimated hezbollah you know they're they're so proud of their exploding phones and exploiting uh pagers and the assassination of nasrallah oh they're weakened

Netanyahu gave a gold pager to Trump. That's funny. It really is. It's like high school bullies from a movie. Because I don't think those type of bullies exist in real life either. It's just Hollywood extremes. That's what you got. You're like frat boys and stuff running the show. We're going to blow you back to the Stone Age where you belong. What?

Yeah. Well, you saw how the Iranians came back and trolled Hegseth on that, didn't you?

I've seen the Lego videos. Well,

they reproduced a map of the world in the Stone Age, which showed Persians controlling most of the middle, most of Europe. And they said, yeah, well, that's a good idea. Fine by us.

It's rewind time. Yeah, all those Mediterranean civilizations plus the Persians and Chinese. That was the early advancement for human societies.

I'm very impressed that the Iranians, their information operation, their troll game, they are so much better than the Russians. I mean, the Russians are terrible at it. The Iranians, man, are great. They do.

I think you got your phone next to your mic or something like every update's buzzing, right? Yeah, Russia sucks at the media war. But again, a lot of that's because they were banned. Prior to Elon taking over Twitter, there really wasn't a place to go. And Telegram was sort of a baby at the start of that war. But yeah, Ukraine would do really well because they're the only ones allowed to speak. So that was some of it. But they're allowed on Twitter now. And so they could be making videos and things. I don't know how many of these Lego videos and stuff are actually from Iran or they're just from... Some of them are from Americans. They're just from whoever, but they're making them.

They're hilarious.

The other thing is anyone can make that now with AI. You don't need a studio. It's not that complicated. Anybody with an idea can make those things. It's pretty simple. If you have a little actual Lego set, you can get them, you can dress them up how you want and get them to move around, add some dialogue. It's not hard. AI will do it. So, and it's just, it's like, it's almost necessary to troll with Lego figures to reach the average American. Yeah. Because they're putting out like, like Lovegrove come on and give a speech. Dude, no one, no one listened to you make Lego videos. Yeah. I learned this a long time ago. I do a lot of asinine, immature stuff because I know it's a balance between like reach and credibility. You gotta, you gotta do a bit of both. You know, I guess the foot in their door somehow and then drop the heavy knowledge on them, but the jokes and movies and songs, and we got a rap song at the end.

Maybe we got a Lindsey Graham. It's so good. It's necessary. And yeah, Why not? War is so dark. If you can get some kind of facetious humor slid in there, why not bring some kind of meaning to it? It is effective. I think the Saturday Night Live is really getting to Pete Hegseth. He wanted to have the actor portraying him arrested. Forgot his name. I think it's Carl Johansson's husband, whoever that is. He's doing a great job. He just walks up. What up, Chodes? You asked me what's going on. I don't know. And if I don't know, the Iranians don't know. I don't know. They don't have a plan. They really are just winging it. They really thought, oh, we'll just Maduro this. Oh, my God. Well,

they were convinced that they bought the Zionist salesman that came to the door, that David Barnea, the head of Mossad. Man, he sold them a bill of goods. Oh, listen, we've got this wired. We've got all this penetration. All we've got to do is we take out the upper level. The people are going to rise up.

Anti-Castric Cubans or Iranians are going to rise up.

Yeah. And then now what we're finding is that we're now into week six of the war and no end in sight. And the effects, the global effects, we haven't even begun to comprehend it. Now, your former home there in Japan, you saw what happened the other day. They called the Russians up and said, hey, buddy, listen, you know, we used to have to sanction the oil, but you know what? We're going to get away from that. So we'd like to just come up and buy your oil. You know, the sanction price, 47 bucks. How does that sound? And the Russians go, no, no, that's not happening.

Japan's been buying oil from Russia since 2019, but only from the East pipeline.

But they were they were getting a bargain price. Now they're going to pay full weight. And in fact, they wanted to go say, well, let's send a delegation to Moscow to talk. And the Russians said, oh, you can come if you want, but only under the condition you lift all the sanctions right now that you've imposed against it. Lift them all. Then you can come.

They're in a tight spot because the only reason they complied is because America threatened to tariff Toyota and all these Japanese companies unless they put the sanctions on Russia. So it's like they got a balance between it. They are getting some of their oil out of Iran. But... They weren't really buying a lot of oil from Iran. They stopped that, like I said, in 2019. They did from 07 to 2019, and they purchased it with yen. This stuff like everyone's spending yuan is not true. The Indians are paying in their own currency. The Japanese are paying in their own, but it's still not dollars. But it never has been. It hasn't been like that for 20 years. So it's not some great shift away from the petrodollar. I know people get really hung on that, but you really look at the details. Iran has not been selling oil on dollars for a very long time. What's hurting is the Gulf Arabs aren't selling oil at all.

That's the major thing. And it's up to $112,000 almost, $111,000.

Well, actually, off the boat right now, it's $140.

Oh, wait, it was $114.

That's right. That's the future contract right now is like $114. But the actual pay off the boat, what's on the sea, headed to a port, they're charging $140 for that. And that price is likely to go up to $150 tomorrow. $150, yeah. Now, what's happening, though, is, again, Iran used to process a lot of the payments would go through the UAE and that financial infrastructure. No longer. They're dealing with China. And China is actually building out its financial infrastructure. You saw Deutsche Bank two days ago issued the first Panda bonds. So bonds on Chinese yuan, not on the dollar. And apparently they're selling like hotcakes right now.

Cute name.

Yeah. Yeah. You know, Chinese are pretty good marketers. But so this is, you know, this is restructuring the world. The world financial infrastructure is being remodeled. And, you know, the United States used to get to call the shots. It's still influential. But the United States is a much, much weaker position. And frankly, dismantling these Gulf Arab states, that's, I think, the game.

They might be the biggest losers so far in this conflict is, well, Bahrain, probably number one, but the Gulf Arabs. Reminded me of a joke. You know the difference between Israelis and a panda?

No.

People like pandas.

Yeah. UAE made its bet with both the United States and with Israel, and it's losing big time. Now, what's interesting is Qatar and Oman are actually going to probably come out of this pretty good. Qatar because they had tried to play a fair role as an intermediary. They hosted and protected the Palestinians, Hamas. So Iran's leaving them alone largely, even though they still have Al-Udeed Air Force Base and this Combined Air Operations Center, the CAOC, that's on that base. But Oman is actually going to cash a check off of this because Iran's going to them and saying, you know what? since you're on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, let's just split the money down the middle or 64. You know, I don't know what the percentage should come up with, but we're going to play like we're the doorman at Studio 54. Got to pay a cover charge if you want to come in. And you got to pay a cover charge if you want to leave.

So, and Oman's going, well, that sounds pretty good to me. So, you know, that is that that system is in the process of being put in place right now. And really, there's not there is not a damn thing the United States can do to force it open militarily. I mean, to be to take action and have it open within a week or two weeks. What would be required militarily in order to take over, to free Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, would be – you'd need about two to three million men. You'd have to land on the Iranian soil and push inland at least 100, 200 miles through heavily mountainous territory. And I'll tell you what, the heat...

As you're doing that, they just blow up the refineries anyway. Yeah. You can't do it. That was part of Trump's threat. He's like, open the straight, you crazy bastards. That is definitely getting to him. He keeps acting like, we don't need it anyway. Please open it. Oh, we don't need that. Let's get an international armada to open it. Okay, you guys, go get your own. The only truthful thing he said in his speech the other day is... He's given up on opening the Strait of Hormuz. He's going to like, he wants them to open it. He's like, if you don't, we'll just start attacking civilians. It's like, okay, Israel.

And then why did he come back today and make this, oh, open the goddamn Strait. He was like some emotionally deranged actor. It reminds me, was that actor's name Tom Wilkinson?

If you want to, just look up Nicholas Cage loses his shit, that montage. That's Trump in the Oval Office right now. Best over actor ever. Yeah.

No, he just completely lost it today. And, you know, it's like either you care or you don't care, Donald. Which is it, man? And today it was all about I care a whole lot.

Old Kim to the north of me is like, I am no longer the craziest world leader. This is how bad it is. He's the guy that sent poop balloons. That's up there.

But that's how bad it is. Donald Trump is making Kim look sane.

I'm going to make that meme like Kim looking at a screen or something like, this guy's irrational. Yeah. And it's just, it's true. And it's everyone around them. They're like that. And you got all these apologists, these Mark Levine types and of course, Miss Lindsay, Ted Cruz, who never comes up for air. They just, they're just encouraging the whole thing because they're diehard for Israel. And everyone knows that's what this war is about. They started it for the fourth time, but you don't see them happen to reopen the strait. They don't care. They don't care about Europe's problems. They don't care about East Asia's problems. It doesn't matter as long as they can kill Iranians. Iran can't have a ceasefire. No, y'all will just do it again in six months. We've seen this. There's nobody to negotiate with.

The other meme to consider for Trump is he's like the actor Tom Wilkinson in the movie Michael Clayton that was a George Clooney hit. Wilkinson played this lawyer, and at the deposition, he's really enamored with his female client who's been suffering from toxic results of a big pharmaceutical industry. And he starts yelling and taking off all of his clothes. before long he's naked in front of him that that that was what came to mind when i saw trump's rant this morning that would be a horror scene oh my god yeah trump did that not enough sulfuric acid in the world to rub that out of your brain don't you

see he just i feel sorry for his wife i feel sorry from all i feel sorry for those little kids It's become more and more clear that, you know, even if they were right on the line, whatever, this is Epstein's fury. This is Epstein class. And a lot of these golfies were involved in that, too.

Yeah, this, you know, the events of the last two days with this combat search and rescue operation, boy, a lot of this is just not adding up. No. the story that's being told to people, it ain't the official story. There's something, um, and they're actually simplicious. Uh, he, he's got another sub stack, uh, not to plug other sub stacks,

but it's like the Jessica Lynch thing. You remember that in Iraq war two? Yeah. I actually met her college roommate. Oh, you did. Okay. More than better. But yeah, I got that whole story. And it was just, they made this rescue mission when she's just in a hospital and they gave her to the, it wasn't a anything, but they made it like female soldier. And we went in and like some firefighter, none of that happened. Well,

yeah, when you look at the story as it's laid out and as it has unfolded, the sites where the F-15 Eagle went down is reportedly 200 miles from where it was actually located, or where they claimed that they located it. The types of forces they used in this were Navy SEALs. Now, normally, combat search and rescue, the main players in that are what they call the PJs, the para-rescue jumpers. And the PJs, within the world of special ops, The PJs are probably the least known and probably the most highly skilled. More skilled than Delta Force, more skilled than SEAL Team 6. Because these cats, they... I had two PJs in my jiu-jitsu class. Oh, okay. Well, they, you know, they're medics. They've got advanced combat medicine so that they can do, you know, tracheotomies and some, you know, other stuff that can save lives. They're parachute qualified. They're water qualified. So they have to pass tests just like the SEALs would.

And they have to pass endurance and land nav just like Delta Force does. And they have to be proficient with weapons as well. I mean, they're real. These guys are studs. Real studs. And they apparently weren't involved in the rescue. They claim it was the Navy SEALs, SEAL Team 6 in particular. Now, that's not what SEAL Team 6 is designed for. That's not what it does. but and instead of the spot where they did the rescue is more than almost 250 miles inside uh iran from from the border okay so you got to ask the question the how did all the the helicopters you know the pave hawks How did they get there and then be able – they got about a 500-mile range. So if they started just right on the border, flew in there, they would be running on fumes if they got back. And that assumes that you're not spending any additional time flying around in the air looking for somebody. Did they get back? Well, they're saying they all got back, but that's the other thing that we don't have the full story on.

So this weapons system officer, the number two guy in this plane that went down, turns out he was a commander of one of the U.S. air bases there in Saudi Arabia. He was a colonel. He is a colonel. Now, normally, that second backseat is taken by a young lieutenant or a young captain. What the hell is this 06, this colonel, doing in that seat, number one? Number two, when they put two C-130s on the ground, and they said that they got stuck there, Well, the way this is supposed to work is you send out somebody in advance to test the runway. They had it. It was like an improvised runway or something out there in the boonie. So you're supposed to go out and check it to make sure it could hold the weight of a plane like a C-130. Apparently that wasn't done, or they had never done that, but they actually knew where this airfield was, and the guy that they were looking for was conveniently just up the mountain from that airfield.

And so when you look at the size, a C-130, it can carry, you know, roughly almost a company size of, say, a Ranger regiment. So, you know, about 150 guys with combat loads, or it can carry little birds. Now, this is the other thing that's interesting. They said that they left four little birds at the site, and they were destroyed as well. Okay, the little bird, if anybody's watched the movie Black Hawk Down, those are the two-man, it's a two-man helicopter, but it's got an open area on the back, and you can get two operators sitting on each side with their feet on the skids. OK, so it's really more for a tactical insertion. But apparently, I'm told one of those little birds was used to lift this colonel who was up the mountain off of a ridge. And again, so you got to ask, do they just only have two operators on the skids? And then they grabbed this guy and threw him inside and got down. Then what the hell were the other three for?

So they clearly, those helicopters only have enough range that they could have flown from their point of origin to that site, and then they're out of gas. So one of the C-130s, I'm pretty sure, would have had a fuel bladder on board, like a big bag of aviation fuel to be used to refuel the helicopters, assuming that they were going to fly back to the point of origin. So, God, you had just a ton of aviation assets involved with this. Now, it's partly explained because the colonel, let me look this up real quick. I can give you the specifics. Now, the colonel who was involved with this, it was, let's see, where are you? Come on, don't do that to me. All right, there we go. He was vice-wing commander at, I think, the King Fahd Air Base in Saudi Arabia. So vice-wing commander. And he was, you know, if he had been captured by the Iranians, he would have known where a lot of the secrets are and what was underway.

But before this day was out, not only did the Iranians shoot down the F-15, they shot down the Warthog. Yeah, the A-10 Warthog, which, you know, it crashed either in Kuwait or in the ocean, and the pilot was picked up. They lost at least two Black Hawk, you know, the Pave Hawks are called, Now, those were seen trailing smoke, but they reportedly got out of, I guess they got hit picking up the first pilot, and they managed to make it back to Kuwait or into Iraq where they crashed, landed, but the helicopters were severely damaged. Then you lost at least two C-130s, that aircraft.

And the F-16 separate from all of that.

And the F-16 separate. And now there are reports that because they're out of air defense and they've been obliterated. Yeah. Yeah. It was an inconvenient development given Trump's speech the previous night or two nights before.

It's just amazing. All those planes crashed into each other.

what's the new excuse gonna be but then so so it looks like you have at one point at this airfield this remote airfield you're looking for one guy and we've reportedly got close to a hundred military personnel on the ground there okay how the hell did they get out Well, there's an aircraft called a Dash 8 that is, again, it looks like a conventional airliner, but it's designed to be able to land in rough terrain like this. And apparently that was able to fly in, loaded everybody up and got them out. But we left behind the remains of those two C-130s, four little birds. But there's another video that shows what looks to be a C-130 on fire crashing into the ground. That may have happened in a completely different location. What makes all of this really interesting is this location where they picked him up is within like 35 miles of Ishfahan with a reactor, a nuclear storage site is located.

So we've got to wonder, was this in fact a failed raid that, you know, their cover story

The rescue is the cover story.

Yeah, the rescue is the cover story. The real story was we were trying to go in and secure those. So we think, we don't know, we think that there's enriched uranium there. They're going to try to take control of it. But that failed. So, you know, that's the only thing that explains to my mind the presence of SEAL Team 6 and it looked like at least a company of the 75th Rangers. But, you know, the story is all over the map and it just doesn't add up. It doesn't add up as the conventional, oh, we had a plane shot down. We had to go find the pilot and we had to rescue it.

It's just too much carnage, and it's also very improbable that all that equipment got blown up, but nobody was on it. They all ran away. Israel's saying the same stuff about its own casualties. They're admitting thousands wounded, but only dozens killed.

I think in the course of this operation, once the story comes out, there were at least six killed in action as a result of this whole operation. They're going to try to keep it as secret as possible. But ultimately, I think ultimately, the story's going to start getting out. that's being celebrated as, oh, man, look how great we are. Yeah, we basically lost about $400 million worth of aircraft. That included an MQ Predator 9 drone that was shot down as well.

Oh, they've been hitting those. And they're catching these stuff with infrared. It's not radar so that they can't go and then bomb the radar. They don't know this old school, but it works. And I had people telling me this before the war started, but I just kept my mouth shut. I was like, I'm not going to help terrorists. But now it's sort of known, so I can say it, but that's what they've been doing. Um, They had to take it on the chin in the beginning. But as they run out of standoff munitions, anybody go look at my pen tweet from March 13th. I said, as the U.S. runs out of standoff munitions, you're going to start seeing aircraft getting shot out of the sky. And it's just, oh, with what? All the comments are just saying, I'm what a moron I am. Now I just take every single time a plane goes down, add it to the thread. Like, what happened here? What happened here? What happened here? It's disgusting and pointless.

There's no reason for the U.S. to be at war with Iran. You're going to have a global collapse economically because Israel wants the U.S. to go to war with Iran. And we're going to have a phosphate shortage. We're having a fertilizer problem. These are down the road. These are months down the road. It's almost insolvable. And it's sort of their problem because they used to get phosphates from Morocco, but they sanctioned that and they used to get them from Russia and they won't sell the US. So they're pretty much relying on Saudi Arabia who can't physically get it out. And if the Houthis close the Red Sea on both sides, then you're looking at it going from 13 to 32% shutdown. When people say 20, I'm like, yeah, but about 7% is circumvented by going to the Red Sea. But that also gets closed. That cuts off what you were mitigating from the Strait of Hormuz plus the Red Sea itself, which is another 12%.

So you're looking at about a 32% shutdown. More than double what it is now. You think oil, what was it? 114, 140 for the loading? I think futures will go past 125. And yeah, you might get a loading cost of... close to 200. That's not an exaggeration.

Yeah, no, that's, you know, the reverberations throughout the global economy. I saw Bloomberg put an article out saying, you know what, this may cause a recession. Thank you, Captain Obvious. Not only will it may, it has already caused a recession. The recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Well, regardless of how you want to do the academic definition, we're in that situation. The only question is, is this going to descend into a full-blown depression which means negative 10% growth or worse, or a decline of 10%. It's going to be a lot worse than that outside of the U.S.

I mean, the U.S. will survive this, but reputation is damaged. They're going to take an economic hit. The future relations with countries, I mean, you can kiss nonproliferation goodbye. Everybody's going to be racing to get the bomb after this, no matter what. uh but it's going to be devastating in the gulf and in europe east asia will they'll serve they just sell us bonds they can they've got uh backup plans but you know it's gonna be hard for them too especially in the places like vietnam the philippines and malaysia they're hurting already australia is hurting too they're running out of jet fuel I mean, how are they going to burn buildings? That's a joke, kooks. I don't believe that.

Well, you know, when you look at what's happened also to the airline industry itself is in crisis.

Well, wasn't it anyway with Boeing?

Well, apart from that.

Yeah, the head of Air Canada finally stepped down. Good riddance.

you've got a tripling of aviation fuel right now. And it's going to probably go higher.

Oh, I know my flights from between Japan and Korea. I used to, we were, I was going there regularly hunting bears and it used to be, you know, 50 to 150 bucks. Now it's almost $400 for an hour and a half flight. Yeah.

And then also flight routes. So the European airlines are particularly screwed. I mean, they, you know, back before they sanctioned Russia, they could fly across Russia to get to Asia and they had a pretty good business. And before the war broke out here with Iran, hey, Dubai, And Doha were, you know, premier stops. Qatar Air was great. Emirati Air was just spectacular. It was really, I was fortunate to fly on that three or four times.

I put that almost on par with Singapore. That's the best one.

Yeah. Well, the lounge, you know, Emirati Air on some of their long flights, they've got this lounge, this bar at the back. Uh, and you know, people go, if they're on a 12 hour flight to go back there, get hammered, then stagger back to the seat and try to sleep it off.

Yeah. On a two hour flight. Yeah.

Yeah, but now they're not going through that part of the world. So the only one who's actually got unrestricted access to Europe is China because they've got full rights to fly across Russia. They get direct flights, so it's cheaper. But even then, their prices have gone up. You know, a business class seat from reportedly from, say, Beijing to Paris is like $11,000. That's just business class. Yeah. So you're going to see there's going to be a rapid fall off.

To steal a line from Rory, I was born in economy, forged by it. I don't know the rest of the speech. $11,000. Yeah, they're just... That's the glue, too. And you see that's going to affect shipping in general. People say, well, you got to understand, it's not just gasoline in your car. It's everything you get from the grocery store. Everything you get from a clothing store or anything you buy anywhere has to be shipped there. And shipping costs go up. All costs ultimately get passed on to the consumer. If you don't believe me, look at the sales tax. It's called sales tax, but it's a buyer's tax. Who pays the sales tax? You do when you buy something. It's like blah, blah, blah, plus tax. So it's a buyer's tax. Same thing happens with tariffs. You tariff them, but they just raise price. So the consumer pays all the taxes. That's what you got to realize. No matter who you're taxing, it ends up on you.

A little libertarian lesson for you. And if you raise the price for shipping because oil costs more, it just makes goods cost more across the board. And it could cause shortages. It can get to the point where it's just not there. Cuba's having that situation, not because of the Iran war, but because of the shenanigans in Venezuela. The lights went off in Havana, except for the Ritz because of their generator. The whole city, dark. That can happen. And that can happen anywhere. If they close the Red Sea, which they're more than capable of doing, the Houthis already proved they could do it. They cut it off only to Israel, though. But if they want to cut it off the traffic in general, they can. And then what? What are you going to do? You're going to have to comply to these demands. And Trump's saying he's talking to people, but he can't tell you who these people are. He's just making it up.

We really are in a situation where the president is just making stuff up and cussing. It's like with the scene you talked about. That's where we are. The fat orange monster having hissy fits.

And on top of it, he had, you know, he was getting that new presidential jet from Qatar. I think Qataris will be saying, you know what, forget about that. And then Emirates, the Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and I believe Kuwait had all volunteered to pony up a billion dollars a piece for Trump's board of peace.

Oh, yes.

That lasted a long time. Yeah, now I can see them saying, No, no, no. We're not giving you that money. Forget about that.

These people are so delusional, they wanted to build beachfront property in Gaza.

Yeah.

Remember Kushner saying that?

Well, they're going to try to make it into the new Dubai.

He mispronounced good Dubai.

Yeah.

That's a Japanese joke, but it works very well. Good Dubai.

With, you know, Dubai right now is initially thought there would be a food crisis because there are no food imports coming in. But, you know, like 70% of the people have left the country because they were mostly foreigners anyway. So that's right now we're getting the hell out of here.

At least that city. Yeah, and Abu Dhabi too.

Yeah, so they're going to have problems on that front. Actually, I think the two existing states that are right there, but United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, those would be the two to go.

What's very interesting is Oman ended slavery in 1970. And I did not mispronounce that. 1970, they end slavery. UAE gets created in 1971, re-implements slavery. It's illegal on paper, but... But they haven't. Yeah, they haven't. They ended that year and reconstituted. It's just like when northern states finally got black suffrage, which was way after the Civil War. Finally, slavery is illegal, but then they use prison labor and it's a chain gang building the railroad and it's still slaves.

Yeah. Well, I was shocked to learn that, you know, all those high rise buildings, they're not hooked up to a sewage system. They literally, they collect... No, they're in Dubai. Yeah. Well, they collect it. You know, there are trucks that come every morning to pick up the human waste and God knows where they dump it. But there's still, there's not a sewage treatment plant to my knowledge. So this is – You mean you need to do it?

So like on the island where I'm from, we'd have to do that in certain spots because you can't – the water table is so high, so you have to do the tanks that come and fill up a big – like think of like a cement truck kind of. They just fill it up every now and then. And I think they dump it all in the Park Service now. But to do that in an area like that, why? I think Bechtel built it in Saudi Arabia for quite a return. this is it's like the plastic country i mean you even the seven star hotels whatever and stuff like the panels are falling off the walls like it's put together with uh like bread ties you know it looks nice on the outside nothing inside you see that with some of the stuff in shang singh and stuff too it looks real cool outside but they're not built really well that's why the chinese buildings are just falling down their their trains fly off the rails like

and then it's going to get real interesting in another month as this war goes on because will it i think it may oh yeah in may though it gets hot as you know the the the fireplace in hell uh it is hotter than two hamsters in wool sock in here

yeah you buy is done messed up more than a cricket and hubcap

The troops that are forward deployed, if they're still there, they're going to be pretty miserable. And, you know, if Trump follows through to attack on his vow to attack the power stations in Iran, Iran will reciprocate and destroy all the power places in Dubai, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. They may leave Qatar alone.

It's a price Israel is willing to pay. Yeah. Netanyahu got up and said, we're willing to fight to the last American. That's pretty much the thing. I want to give you an option between folk or rap. Cause I've got both versions. I'm not going to play the whole song. Cause the second half.

I would go with the folk myself.

All right. It's actually easier to understand the words in the folk. So I like that one. Now let's do that. And then I'm going to have to bail here. Let's, uh, Let's hear a little bit of this and I will make sure I hit pause before it gets when I really get rolling. So this was made. I did not sing this. I did not have a friend sing this. This is AI. This is something anybody can make, but I wrote all the words. So this is the fat orange monster. Coming in okay?

Yeah.

Fat, dumb, orange monster. Some call him orange juice. Holding cabinet meetings at McDonald's. Everybody wearing shiny clown shoes. Pete Hezza, the Department of War Crimes. Drunk, holy rollercoaster, nationalist snorting lines. Lines of Toosie. Such a sight to see. With his buddy, Lindsey Graham, a limp wrist, it's a sea. Lindsey is always playing. I, the hamster in the gate, if you know what I'm saying. Narco Rubio. Hace lo que le dice tiene la integridad de un burro. Howard Lipnick and inside a traitor bringing children to a sex offenders island and laughs about child grapes and pizzas. Son 9-11 has another chance to cheat. Yeah, it's Steve Fury. because Israel said to go to die. They obliterated credibility as they constantly lie. Fighting, I read, but can't explain why. Chosen ones scurry to the shelters as Koram Shah light up the sky. Hezbollah laughing as the murk of a tank's fry. panic hitting hormones shut down gray i'm hates the straight little baby can't be found i ran a shooting down aircraft like you've never seen before going down faster than an israeli Slurping skin flutes, he's the middleman in a human centipede.

He's taking tea bags from APAC until his tonsils bleed. These are clowns. That orange juice got played like Epstein. It gets harder and harder as it goes on. You got to send that to me. The ladybug comment though. I was like, oh yeah, get that in there.

ted cruz is the middle man in a human centipede yeah hey the spanish part in there is basically calling marco rubio an obedient yes man but i got it i couldn't rhyme rubio without using spanish and it happened to work out so there it is cool oh

that's great all right i'm gonna have i'm gonna have to jump here i've got another

i'll send you that i'll send you both versions um You'll like it. I'm going to get, I give praise to, to nice people in the song. And I trashed these people like little Mario that like repeat stuff. He learned from AI two minutes ago. He's like, well, according to my research and like, you should put it in AI and he asked a question, man. Like, don't, don't act like you research anything. Yeah. Sad bastards. All right, man. All right, brother. Until we meet again. Unfortunately, this war is going to continue. Or maybe I should say fortunately, because it's the only way really this was ever going to end.

Yeah, this is the only hope for the Palestinian people. That's right. I mean, it's horrific what's taking place, but it's the choice that Trump made and the Bibi Netanyahu made, and the rest of us have to suffer the consequences.

After watching Gaza and Syria and Libya and the rest of it and the both wars in Iraq, like... It's nice seeing the good guys win. And we have to come to terms that we are the bad guys. We are funding the terrorists. The terrorists are the Israelis. They started this war.

Well, again, I use the simple definition of terrorism provided by Bibi Netanyahu during an interview by William F. Buckley. And Bibi said terrorism is use of violence against civilians for political purposes. And if you take that definition and you look at all the violence we, the United States, have inflicted upon terrorism, Vietnamese, Libyans, Iraqis, Afghanis, Syrians, Somalians, Servians, Panamanians, you know, go down the list. Unfortunately, we sit atop that list, unfortunately.

Killed millions of people since World War II ended.

Yeah, well, and I didn't even go into the terrorist bombings of Japan with, you know, Curtis LeMay.

So, all right, my friend. Hey, listen, thanks. And the fire bombing of Tokyo and the overkill on German cities as well. And then another war with the northern half of Korea. And, of course, Vietnam and so on, just millions and millions of people being murdered. Yeah. And sometimes you get a Waco now and then they kill their own.

Happy Easter, everyone.

He is risen. There you go. He is risen. I hope you guys had good egg hunts. I'll have a comment. I ain't going to say it. About a certain person hunting eggs in a different way. All right, y'all. Peace. Later. Thanks, man. Bye-bye. Y'all want to hear the rap song? I'm going to play it after Larry leaves, and I'll send him both. I'll just get him off the stage there. It's pretty hardcore, but let's play a little bit of it, shall we? I don't know why I'm asking because this isn't live, but here's what I'll do. I'll just put them on Substack. And I'll do the folk version and the rap. The lyrics are slightly different because the rap I had to make, you know, the rhyme and stuff a little bit better. But it's essentially the same song. That will be there for Substack. It's only $7 a month. a month, not a day. It's 23 cents a day. It's no big deal. You sign up for a year and I think you get two months for free or a month and a half, something like that.

Um, And this is, look, by doing this, that supports me enough to really focus on these wars and conflicts and Epstein files. And that's ongoing too. Bank of America, I predict, will have to pay $72.5 million in settlements for their role, facilitating Les Wexster. who's also being sued. You got that to look forward to. We got more subpoenas coming. So don't think the Epstein files are gone just because most of the attention's on the war. That's all still happening in the background. And I have every update, every time there's a new thing, it's on RyanDawson.org. In fact, I'll put that right there. Boom. That is where you go. RyanDawson.org. You can click on any post. It's only $7. So I would deeply appreciate it that we can get more banger films like this 9-11 film or this Numek film that I made. Maybe we could get an Epstein film. It all depends on you. Hit that button. Do it today. Peace.