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https://www.ryandawson.org/p/ryan-and-scott-dawson-on-iran-war

Разговор о войне с Ираном и «иллюзиях» администрации Трампа

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/ryan-and-scott-dawson-on-iran-war

Краткое содержание

Длинный разговор, где Райан и Скотт Доусоны обсуждают войну с Ираном и называют действия администрации Трампа хаотичными и некомпетентными. В тексте много оценочных и резких заявлений, а также утверждений о ходе боевых действий и состоянии вооружённых сил.

Основные тезисы

  • В начале звучит музыкальная вставка, затем авторы переходят к обсуждению войны и её причин, называя Израиль ключевым триггером
  • Утверждается, что Трамп и Хегсет «придумывают» планы, не слушая Пентагон и разведку
  • Обсуждается идея конвоя судов в Ормузе: по их мнению, это физически невозможно из‑за береговой обороны
  • Перечисляются якобы отказавшиеся от участия союзники (Франция, Британия, Япония, Италия и др.)
  • Звучит утверждение, что попытки создать коалицию провалились, включая отказ Японии по конституционным причинам
  • Говорится о якобы неверных заявлениях Трампа о потопленном иранском флоте и «ИИ‑камикадзе»
  • Утверждается, что основная угроза — береговые батареи и укрепления, которые невозможно быстро подавить
  • Рассуждается о плане захвата острова (вероятно Кхарг): авторы считают, что морская высадка обречена, а десант будет уничтожен
  • Указывается, что даже высадка не решит проблему Ормуза, поскольку Иран может продолжить блокаду и наносить удары
  • Звучат утверждения о дефиците перехватчиков у США и Израиля (PAC‑3, THAAD)
  • Заявляется, что север Израиля «ослеплён» ударами по радарам, а танки поражаются дронами
  • Упоминаются удары по объектам в странах Персидского залива и пожары в аэропортах (Дубай, Бахрейн)
  • Делается вывод, что Иран сознательно не уничтожает гражданскую инфраструктуру полностью, чтобы не переходить к массовому уничтожению
  • Говорится о стратегической выгоде для Ирана в затяжной войне и экономическом удушении противника

Значимость

Фрагмент отражает радикально критическую и конспирологически окрашенную трактовку войны, с множеством неподтверждённых утверждений и эмоциональной риторикой.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

*Dramatic music* Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan, Grease, Satan The president's stand, let it ride, ride You will be damned Make your life stand In Tehran In Tehran In Tehran Jennifer lost the water then I'll find her burned and raped Through it all she must have wondered What have I done? But nobody really cares today The world's a busy place Yes, you must have released it now Released it now I guess we're all just soldiers She was only six years old Left to die by strangers Our family waits And if we're all just soldiers Is it so wrong to be afraid? Alright, we're recording This guy, I've never seen him before What's um How do we begin? So much has happened in this war I guess I'll start with the most recent update And then we can Start in how we got in this mess We got in this mess because Israel There's the easy answer So Trump is running his mouth It seems like him and Pig Hegseth Just make things up They're getting plans from like video gamers They're not listening to the Pentagon You know, like the real Pentagon people They're not listening to the CIA They're not listening to anybody with an IQ above room temperature And they're just making things up They say like, oh, we're going to attack them with the Kurds The Kurds said, no, no, we're not Then he said, we're going to escort ships out Don't worry And he's saying this to the markets They're like, you can't And that didn't happen Then he tried to get a coalition together France told him no Even the United Kingdom told him no Japan told him no Japan has to say no They constitutionally cannot get involved South Korea told him no China told him no Italy told him no Everybody said no To the most powerful Navy in the world About putting escorts in the strainer for moose Because You physically can't do it He's saying, well, we But we sank their Navy And he also said the kamikaze boats were AI No, they're not And those aren't the problem It's the land batteries that are the problem And he's like, well, we're bombing the coastline Because they're dug in the cliffs and things Okay You have hundreds of planes You need to bomb something the size of Vietnam And hit something as small as a gun Good plan Not Then he said We're going to take out Karag Island So he bombed a runway there Whatever Didn't touch the oil Can't Because if he does Iran will light up All the Saudi oil fields on fire Or they'll have Yemen do it Or whatever That'll be gone So he can't do it They're still delivering oil He's like, we're going to have a We're going to send in the Marines Oh Yeah First, they can't get into the strait For an aquatic landing They can't You got to get all the way next to almost Kuwait That's where the island is And yeah, good luck That's not going to happen They'll get blown up the same way By the land batteries They will be destroyed before they reach the island You could try to get some Osprey tilt rotors And paratroops and people On the island And then what? They're stuck there And they'll get hit with ballistic missiles With no bunkers No defense No resupply No anything And I swear this is from The video game Battlefield Because they They use that as a stage Like this is where he's getting these ideas Oh, yeah Well, cripple Iran Whatever You can't do it They're out of Interceptors They're out They don't have PAC-3s All the THAAD batteries have been destroyed So whatever missiles are left don't matter Because they're blind Pac-2s don't work They're low on those Hezbollah has taken All the northern radar in Israel Is gone Across the blue line All those towers And their crews Dead Five tanks destroyed yesterday They're just hitting them with drones And the question is People are like Why don't they just bomb everything all at once? Well, the clock Is on Iran's side Like you got someone bleeding Let them bleed every day They say Oh, yeah We're gonna bomb here, here, here And they've got a lot of targets Because they're hitting all the Gulf Arab states too But they've got What's it called? Goodbye Oh, wait Dubai Yeah, their airport's on fire right now Bahrain has been hit so hard I mean, it's like It's like Lindsey Graham At a Boy Scout camp He's getting smashed, dude It's a sticky mess It's like Ted Cruz Watching Kids Olympics or something It's a sticky mess They're done That monarchy They won't survive this war Great airfield's gone They left the bridge To Saudi Arabia It's not easy to blow up a bridge If you saw that in the Ukraine Russia war All those bridges You can hit them It's a big stone I mean It's not worth it Yeah, they left it They left a way to retreat Let them get out Because look It's not a war on civilians And They're not hitting If they wanted to level Abu Dhabi In Dubai Or Doha Whatever they can They could hit the water distillery And wipe them all out But they don't They're not going to do that And I really don't think Shia Muslims would Force people to die from thirst Because that's the origin Of the religion You know Hussein with the 70 men And he's killed The economic strangle Favors a long war And Iran's like Look U.S. wants a short war We're not going to give them A short war And A friend of mine A colleague of mine Kevork said This was Iran's Samson option Closed the state of Hormuz But I'm just going to do A little tap dance Because myself And Pepe Escobar Discussed this Back in 2014 When we were talking About pipelines And explaining BTC From Azerbaijan To Turkey Like I made that video That Half a million views Or whatever Before it got yanked On the pipeline politics But this is the Maritime Silk Road I explained it on red ice During the conflict Between Saudi Arabia And Yemen Then when I was talking About the choke points And the other choke point