«Reform, Restore and Today in Great Yarmouth»: Гриффин о выборах и расколе на правом фланге
Источник: https://nickgriffin544956.substack.com/p/reform-restore-and-today-in-great
Краткое содержание
Ник Гриффин разбирает день местных выборов в Великобритании и фокусируется на одном округе — Great Yarmouth — единственном, где для британских националистов, по его мнению, есть осмысленная ставка. На национальном уровне ожидается крупная победа Reform UK Найджела Фараджа и разгром Старемера и старых партий: цель Reform — взять Норфолк, один из консервативных советов в его «hitlist».
Партия Restore Britain Руперта Лоу формально не выставляется ни в одном из около 5 000 разыгрываемых мест, что вызвало возмущение у её онлайн-сторонников. Однако в самом округе Лоу его местные сторонники зарегистрированы как локальная партия Great Yarmouth First и борются за все девять подразделений Норфолкского совета и за по-выборы в районе Caistor South. Кандидат в Caistor South — Джон Уэдон, менеджер избирательного офиса Лоу, он же баллотируется в Lothingland (до этого консервативное место). Гриффин отмечает странность отдельного бренда: партия, чьи лидеры обещают большинство в парламенте к 2029 году, зачем-то идёт под локальным флагом.
Логика расклада в Great Yarmouth
По Гриффину, главная проблема Лоу — конкуренция с Reform на одном электоральном поле. Контест в Great Yarmouth «критичен для Restore» и «локально незначим» для Reform. Ориентир: если Лоу не возьмёт минимум пять из девяти мест, у него «почти нет шансов» удержать собственный парламентский мандат в 2029 году. Если же Reform не возьмёт ни одного места в Great Yarmouth, это, возможно, стоит партии Норфолка, но не повредит общенациональному «фараджевскому подъёму», который, по его оценке, уже состоявшийся факт.
Критика кампании Restore и Reform
Гриффин жёстко критикует уровень полевой работы обеих партий. На фоне 120 000+ членов Restore Britain в Great Yarmouth «150 кампаньеров на улице» выглядят слабо, особенно с учётом того, что они только разносили листовки, не проводили обхода и канвассинга, а сами листовки были общими. Зелёные, лейбористы и LibDem, наоборот, годами «работают» целевые места локальными бюллетенями по местным проблемам, идентифицируют сторонников, организуют почтовое голосование, телефонный канвассинг и адресные рассылки. Reform тоже разносит «по одной-две общие листовки», но выигрывает за счёт всеобщей ненависти к старым партиям, а не за счёт качества кампании. Автор обещает «вытащить» старое руководство BNP по электоральной работе, написанное им вместе с Ричардом Ламби, как образец того, как должно выглядеть полевое крыло.
Прогноз и стратегический вывод
По прогнозу Гриффина, Фарадж выиграет крупно; вопрос — что станет с Лоу. Локально он популярен и считается работящим депутатом. Бренд Great Yarmouth First может выстрелить, потому что местные «независимые» исторически создавали почву для последующих побед инсургентов (он напоминает о победах BNP в Бернли и Сток-он-Тренте, где раньше выигрывали локальные независимые). Однако даже большая победа в Great Yarmouth, по Гриффину, не доказывает потенциала Restore на общих выборах: ключевой вопрос 2029 года — кто управляет страной, Фарадж или преемник Стармера.
Из этой логики Гриффин делает контр-интуитивный вывод: лучший исход для британских националистов — поражение Лоу сегодня. Не потому, что Restore хуже остальных (по его словам, по позиции, политике и качеству растущего членства Restore — «лучшая из про-сионистских партий на радаре»), а потому, что поражение даст «реалити-чек» и заставит Лоу перейти к долгосрочной стратегии: использовать энтузиазм команды и многомиллионный бюджет на построение национальной grass-roots-структуры «коренного сопротивления», которая сможет атаковать либо провалившееся правительство Фараджа после 2029-го, либо левую коалицию. Иначе раскол Lowe/Farage в Great Yarmouth уже сегодня может лишить мест и того, и другого — и это, пишет Гриффин, плохая новость для всего «правого» лагеря в 2029 году, ведущая к «марксистской коалиции хаоса».
Значимость
Колонка — точечный наблюдательный материал перед местными выборами в Англии: автор последовательно отделяет общенациональный сюжет (рост Reform UK как доминирующей партии правого протеста) от микро-сюжета вокруг персонального проекта Руперта Лоу. Главный аналитический вклад — формулировка структурной проблемы «splitter» на правом фланге: при сохранении мажоритарной системы FPTP параллельная партия, конкурирующая с Reform за тот же электорат, рискует обнулить оба результата. Из идеологически окрашенных оценок (характеристики оппонентов как «marxist coalition», «islamist» и т.д.) стоит делать поправку — это редакторская позиция Гриффина, известного националиста и бывшего лидера BNP; фактическая часть, касающаяся числа разыгрываемых мест, организационного формата Great Yarmouth First и состава кандидатов, опирается на публично доступную электоральную информацию.
🧾 Транскрипт (формат)
Reform, Restore and Today in Great Yarmouth
Источник: https://nickgriffin544956.substack.com/p/reform-restore-and-today-in-great
Rupert Lowe with Jon Wedon, his lead candidate in today’s elections We all want to see Starmer & Co. get a really good kicking in today’s local government elections, and if the polls are right it’s going to happen on a most gratifying scale. But for British nationalists and patriots in general, there’s only one place which really matters: Great Yarmouth. There’s quite a bit of confusion and moaning on social media as members of Rupert Lowe’s massive online fan base ask why they haven’t had a leaflet from Restore Britain through their doors. The answer, of course, is that Restore aren’t standing in a single one of the 5,000-odd seats up for grabs today. In Great Yarmouth, however, they’re sort of standing. This is Rupert Lowe’s parliamentary constituency, and he has got his local supporters organised as a local party. They are standing as Great Yarmouth First, contesting all of the town’s nine Norfolk County Council divisions and in the borough council by-election in Caistor South ward.
Lowe’s Caistor South candidate is Jon Wedon, his constituency office manager, who is also standing for the County Council in Lothingland, which was hitherto held by the Tories, as were six of the others, with Labour holding the remaining two. Why Mr. Lowe has his people standing as Great Yarmouth First rather than Restore Britain has not been explained. It’s an odd move for a party whose leaders and supporters claim to be on course to win a majority of UK parliamentary seats at the next general election. Whatever the reason, Rupert’s big problem in Great Yarmouth today is the same stumbling block Restore will face all over the country in 2029: Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party is standing in Caistor South and for all the County Council seats. Indeed, Norfolk is one of the Tory councils on Reform’s hitlist. This contest is absolutely critical for Lowe and Restore, but of only local significance to Farage and Reform. If Lowe’s local team fail to take at least five of the nine seats, it will tell us that he stands little to no chance of retaining his own seat come 2029. If Reform fail to win a single seat in Great Yarmouth, it might cost them control of Norfolk but even that will not really detract from the nationwide Farage surge which is already a done deal.
In truth, whatever one thinks of them, neither party would actually win many seats on their own merit as campaigners because, frankly, their ‘campaigning’ is in general pitifully crude and woefully inadequate. I must dig out the collected BNP election guidelines manual which Richard Lumby and I produced several years ago; only when you have an idea of how it should be done can you really see how retarded Reform and Restore really are at present. Social media posts out of Yarmouth over the last couple of weeks have boasted of 150 Restore campaigners hitting the streets. This sounds quite impressive, until you consider that the party has more than 120,000 members, and they’re not standing anywhere outside East Anglia’s answer to Blackpool. Further, they had to be split up across nine County Council seats, a whole parliamentary constituency. And they were only leafleting, not knocking doors and canvassing. If the operation was well-organised, a day like that would see leaflets delivered to about half the constituency (including several thousand houses - occupied mainly by natural Lowe supporters - where no-one is even registered to vote). Since at least 80% get shoved straight in the bin along with the pizza adverts, it’s a shocking waste of willing manpower The Greens, Labour and LibDems hit target seats with years of preparation, including working the seat with localised newsletters hammering local issues and their claimed successes in dealing with them. Their voters are identified, provided with postal votes whenever possible, worked with telephone canvassing, door-knocking and targeted mailshots.
Reform and Great Yarmouth First/Restore, by contrast, turn out to shove one or two leaflets, usually generic, through each letter box. Reform look set to devastate Labour and give the Tories a drubbing, but that is a marker of the public loathing for the two old parties, not a reflection of the campaigning capabilities of Farage’s crew. Still, it’s winning that counts, not how you do it, and Nigel is going to win big today, that’s already a given. But what of Rupert? He is very high profile and, by all accounts, popular in Great Yarmouth; he’s a hard-working MP who takes his constituency seriously and says and does things which his voters like. Standing as Great Yarmouth First may turn out to be a wise move which enables his people to tap into the deep public mistrust of all political parties. It is a little known, but significant, fact that some of the BNP’s biggest wins came in places like Burnley and Stoke, where groups of local independents had previously been elected, highlighting particularly discontent with the old parties. Local groups like this help to break down old voting habits, making it easier for electors to switch to an insurgent party in the future.
Regardless of the label, if Lowe’s local team manage to win big today, it will be down to his personal vote in the constituency, and the ease of making an anti-Westminster protest vote in a contest whose result really makes very little difference to ordinary people. A victory would be welcome and notable even under these circumstances, but it would not provide any guide as to Restore’s potential in a general election, in which the key question will be who is going to run the country for the next five years, Farage or whoever succeeds Starmer. If Lowe’s team do well, the local success will allow his supporters to continue to foster the fantasy of a 2029 breakthrough. But if they can’t win in Great Yarmouth today, it should be plain to even dyed-in-the-wool supporters that Restore don’t stand a snowball’s chance in Hell in the next general election. The scale of the Reform victory today looks set to spark a firestorm of old party hostility to Farage & Co. The resulting hysterical over-reaction will generally outweigh the inevitable headlines about inexperienced Reform councillors and councils making a hash of things. Not least because it ill behoves the parties which have wrecked the entire country to point the finger at rivals who allegedly screw up the bin collections. So today’s results will cement Farage’s position as the only credible alternative to the total disaster of a Labour/Green/Islamist coalition.
That, in itself, need not be fatal to Restore, or to Rupert Lowe’s chance of becoming a figure of historic importance in the struggle of the indigenous British for a viable future in our ancient homeland. Which is just as well, because there’s a strong possibility that the Lowe/Farage vote split could deprive both of them of seats in Great Yarmouth. This would be a dire warning of the potential for Restore to split the ‘far-right’ vote in 2029 and hand Britain over to the Marxist Coalition of Chaos. This is why the best result in Great Yarmouth today would be a big defeat for Rupert Lowe. Not because his party is worse than any of the others, because it isn’t. Purely in terms of overall stance, policies and the decency and common sense of its fast-growing membership, Restore Britain is by far the best of all the pro-Zionist parties on the public radar. Rupert Lowe's Path To Power - If He Does the Right Thing NICK GRIFFIN · 14 APR I’m not against Rupert Lowe. Commentators who think I am are quite wrong to say that I am, so let’s get the record straight.
Read full story The reason why it would be good to see Mr. Lowe fail today is that the resulting reality check might just knock some sense into him and persuade him to start playing the sensible long game: Using his enthusiastic team and multi-million-pound war-chest to build a serious indigenous community resistance base. This would give him the powerful, nationwide grass-roots organisation with which to launch a genuine challenge to either a failing one-term Farage administration or to a leftist coalition nightmare. He could build the most effective nationalist movement in British political history and - despite his sickly X posts about supporting the Brit-hating, genocidal monsters in Tel Aviv - I would cheer him and his team to the skies. Win or lose in Great Yarmouth today, this is what Rupert Lowe should do – assuming he’s genuine, rather than a time-wasting distraction, positioned to ensure the full-spectrum dominance of the ‘right’ by people who want to exploit the situation they have created in Britain, rather than to save us from it.
Join me tomorrow once we know the results and read the best advice Rupert Lowe and his supporters will ever get - whatever happens today. Will Rupert Lowe Seize the REAL Opportunity? NICK GRIFFIN · 15 FEB There’s great excitement across the ‘far-right’ (although not among the far-far-right) over the announcement by Rupert Lowe that he is turning his Restore UK from a ‘movement’ into a political party. Read full story