Материал о войне в Персидском заливе и рисках для экономики

Источник: https://macgregorwarrior.substack.com/p/trumps-new-war-in-the-gulf

Краткое содержание

В тексте утверждается, что коммерческий трафик через Ормузский пролив упал на 95–97%, а до 15 млн баррелей нефти в день выведены из оборота; приводится цена авиатоплива в Сингапуре. Отдельно обсуждается уязвимость опреснительных установок в Саудовской Аравии и возможные ответные действия Ирана, а также критикуется позиция элит в Вашингтоне и Тель-Авиве.

Основные тезисы

Заявляются масштабные потери поставок нефти и риски для логистики.
Упоминаются сценарии ударов по опреснительной инфраструктуре.

Значимость

Аналитический текст с сильными утверждениями о рынке энергии и рисках эскалации.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Trump’s New War in the Gulf

Источник: https://macgregorwarrior.substack.com/p/trumps-new-war-in-the-gulf

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Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) has fallen by 95% to 97% and will not resume anytime soon. An estimated 15 million barrels of oil a day have been taken off-line. Physical shortages in Asia have already driven Singapore jet fuel to $231/bbl. Insurance Brokers will not underwrite shipping through SOH until a sustainable cease fire has been established.

There are other considerations besides oil. Jubail desalination plant provides Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia with 90% of its drinking water. If U.S. Forces destroy any of Iran’s desalination infrastructure, Iran is likely to attack and destroy this plant. If this plant is damaged or destroyed, Riyadh will be evacuated because the Saudi government cannot exist without it. Gulf States depend far more on desalination plants than Iran.

Restoring global economic access to energy and its byproducts from nitrogen fertilizer to helium would seem to be the logical next step in a negotiation to end the war, but this is not top priority for the ruling class in D.C. and Tel Aviv. US-Zionist elites seem unconcerned about production shutdowns resulting from the absence of petrochemical feed stocks, aviation fuel and fertilizers let alone the very real potential for famine in the Global South.

Asked when the war will end, President Trump insists the war will end whenever he wants it to end. However, with each passing day the global economy looks more like an eighteen-wheel tractor trailer moving at 140 mph on a collision course with a reinforced concrete wall.